Brain scans reveal why some people feel your pain. By Helen Thomson

FOR some people, seeing pain in someone else is more than emotionally distressing: they feel the pain in their own body too. Now some of the pathways involved have been identified.

“Synaesthetic pain” occurs mainly in people who have lost a limb. Some amputees are already known to experience phantom limb pain – a feeling of pain in a limb that is no longer there – but synaesthetic pain is different. Rather than occurring spontaneously, it is triggered by observed or imagined pain.

“When I hear my husband’s power tools, or see a knife, I often get a sharp pain through my phantom leg,” says Jane Barrett, who has experienced synaesthetic pain since losing her leg in a motorcycle accident.

When we observe or imagine pain, it activates areas of the brain involved in the processing of real pain. This is called the mirror neuron system and is thought to help us to understand other people’s actions and emotions. But the activation is not as strong as that caused by real pain because inhibitory mechanisms normally dampen the response.

Bernadette Fitzgibbon at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, and colleagues, think those inhibitory mechanisms are themselves inhibited in pain synaesthetes. They used EEG to record brain activity in eight amputees who experience both phantom and synaesthetic pain, 10 amputees who experience just phantom pain and 10 healthy people with no amputations while they looked at images of hands or feet in potentially painful and non-painful situations.

When viewing the images, pain synaesthetes exhibited decreased theta and alpha brainwaves compared with the other volunteers. Such a decrease reflects an increase in neural activity, suggesting that their mirror systems are activated more strongly (Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, DOI: 10.1093/scan/nsr016).

Fitzgibbon says the traumatic experience associated with losing a limb may heighten the sensitivity of pain synaesthetes to others’ pain. When threatened, our body naturally becomes hypervigilant to pain: our pain threshold lowers, which can make even small triggers painful. Pain synaesthesia may be a symptom of an abnormal, ongoing hypervigilance.

Michael Banissy at University College London welcomes the new “building block” in our understanding of the condition. “The suggestion that acquired mirror-pain synaesthesia may be mediated by neural disinhibition is intriguing. It implies that plasticity in neural systems involved in our ability to process observed pain can trigger actual pain.”

Carl Zimmer on “Brain Cuttings” and the Future of Books

Carl Zimmer is one of the most astute, nimble, and lyrical science writers alive. In books like The Tangled Bank, Parasite Rex, and Soul Made Flesh, he explores the history and frontiers of discovery with such grace and verve that he makes writing about evolution and neuroscience seem like the most exciting and rewarding vocation on the planet. Meanwhile, his smart features in the New York Times and Discover, and his award-winning blog, The Loom, keep lay readers and scientists up to date on the state of research.

Like Steven Johnson, Malcolm Gladwell, Rebecca Skloot, and Jonah Lehrer, Zimmer is one of our great tribal explainers, making even knotty phenomena like natural selection comprehensible to readers who have little formal science education.

Brain Cuttings coverThe cover of Brain Cuttings, designed by Scott & Nix

Zimmer’s new collection of essays, Brain Cuttings: Fifteen Journeys Through the Mind, is a kind of experiment itself. No trees were harmed in its production; it’s a handsomely designed electronic book, offering tales from the lab that cast light on the supremely complex three-pound network in our skulls. Zimmer digs deep into the neuroscience of sexual desire, fear, and “zoning out”; gauges the speed of thought; and peers inside the brain of a man whose mind’s eye has been struck blind — all in a lucid, breezily readable 115 e-pages. It’s a guided tour of the organ that makes us human by one of the most trustworthy guides through Darwin’s kingdom.

Like the most skillful writers in any genre, Zimmer has an uncanny knack for metaphors that make even arcane concepts go down easy (in addition to the writerly instinct that RadioLab host Jad Abumrad calls “a nose for the poetically spooky.”) Describing software programmed to simulate the brain’s ability to recognize faces, he writes:

If you open the hood on one of these programs, you will not find any processor behaving like a grandmother cell, responding only to a single face and being solely responsible for recognizing it. Instead, it is the pattern of all the processors taken together that corresponds uniquely to each face. This sort of network behaves like a crowd of people in a football stadium creating huge pictures by holding up colored squares. A single person may hold up the same color when producing different pictures; the unique picture emerges only through the collective behavior of the crowd.

Available as a download from Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Mobipocket, Brain Cuttings has arrived in a burgeoning market at the same moment that Amazon has announced its new Kindle Singles format, which will enable authors to publish manuscripts in the 10,000 to 30,000 word range. That’s shorter than traditional tomes on paper, but a potential sweet spot for investigative journalism, episodic prose, science fiction, memoir, dramatic works, unconventional tourguides, Festschrifts, and anything else authors can dream up. In a recent piece for Atlantic.com, Zimmer described the process of creating Brain Cuttings, which was not yet as easy as point-and-click:

Yes, we now live in an age where you can upload a Microsoft Word file directly to an eBook seller. But then you’re the author of a Microsoft Word file. Who wants to be that? I also realized that keeping track of all the directions eBook publishing is going right now would be too much for one person. It is a baffling, disorganized world full of arcane rules and lousy software. I talked to [book designer Charles] Nix and his partner George Scott, who together run the eponymous firm Scott and Nix. They had just published an eBook novel, and wanted to learn more.

Hopefully, with more noble experiments like Brain Cuttings, the process will become even smoother. It’s a creative and exciting time to be a professional writer, albeit a financially unnerving one.

I’ve long admired Zimmer’s work, but this interview marks our first substantive conversation. I talked with the 44-year-old author, who lives in Connecticut, about his surprisingly non-science-centric education, the roles of text and multimedia in storytelling, and the potential of e-books and social networks like Facebook and Twitter to open up new markets for writers.

Silberman: How did you get started as a science writer?

Zimmer: I wasn’t aware that I would like writing about science until I had a job doing it. In college, I wrote fiction. I had a couple of fantastic classes with writers at Yale, and after graduating, I worked as a carpenter. At some point, I decided to try to get a job at a magazine. This was at a time when you could send letters to magazines and actually get a reply. So I heard back from Discover, which had an opening for a copy editor’s assistant if I could pass a test.

I passed the test, but I turned out not to be a very good copy editor. Fortunately, by then, I was doing fact checking and other editorial stuff, and they said, “Why don’t you lay off the copy editing? We’ll have you do other things.” The more I did basic editorial work at Discover, the more I enjoyed it, and the more I realized it fit with all the things I really loved. When I talk to classes now, 20-year-olds ask me for advice about becoming science writers, and I look at them blankly and say, “At your age, I didn’t even think as far as you have about getting into this line of work. Take everything I say with a grain of salt.”

Silberman: Has your literary education helped you do better science journalism?

Zimmer: When you’re in a class on Faulkner or Melville, you’re thinking a lot about how books are put together. When you read “Bartleby, the Scrivener,” you see how memorable characters and ideas can be built up in just a couple of dozen pages. That’s a challenge for people doing science writing — particularly for scientists, actually. Some people think that all they have to do is to find out everything they can on some subject, and then dump it all on the page in a disorganized downpour. Now that I’m teaching writing, I point out to my students that a good article is assembled very, very carefully, so that even someone who doesn’t know much about a subject can drill down into some pretty esoteric stuff. Good articles lure the reader in — complex concepts are brought in one-by-one, and not too fast. I first appreciated these aspects of writing by reading fiction.

Silberman: What planted the seed of Brain Cuttings?

Zimmer: I started out very skeptical about e-books. Ten years ago, I was living in New York, and you’d have people in meetings making these grand statements about how e-books were going to take over publishing in the next few months. There were all these crazy business models based on the idea that e-book sales would double every year starting in 2000. Obviously the dotcom crash, and then 9/11, put the kibosh on that. But the technology wasn’t there yet. There wasn’t enough of a readership and the delivery system was bad. At the time I thought, “Yeah right. This is Pets.com — it’s just silly.”

Ten years later, I had a different attitude. I saw people eating up books with their Kindles and iPads. I looked at the numbers and realized that there’s a real ecosystem taking root. I saw other writers saying, “If I don’t have to deal with paper and glue and binding, I’ll just write something and sell it.” There’s a lot of writing that we all do that could be read by more people.

I wrote this article on the Singularity for Playboy, which made me really happy. But then a funny thing happened: I didn’t get a single piece of email about it. Once an article is in a magazine, it’s on the newsstand for a couple of weeks, and then it’s thrown in the trash. I want people to keep reading these things, and putting them in an e-book offers readers another opportunity. [The article appears in Brain Cuttings as "Too Clever" - S.S.]

Zimmer Wrassling a HagfishZimmer Wrassling a Hagfish

Silberman:  When people get excited about e-books, they often talk about the potential of embedding music and videos into text, as if mere text is just so pre-21st Century. Brain Cuttings, however, is straight text.

Zimmer: I’m a huge fan of finding interesting ways to incorporate video, interactive maps, and all that stuff into our storytelling. I love it. But just because video is good doesn’t mean that text is bad. Text is still good. The Kindle’s success is proof of that. The problem is that computer monitors are a bad technology for reading. After a few hundred words, it’s as if something happens in your cortex, and you peter out. But when you’ve got a device that uses electronic ink or an iPad — which allows you to sit comfortably, untethered to a laptop or a monitor — text is good. People who feel that the future of media is getting away from text are just fooling themselves.

The cover of Brain Cuttings is an engraving from Vesalius’ De Humani Corporis Fabrica ["On the fabric of the human body"]. I’m obsessed with Vesalius because he wrote the first science bestseller in the age of movable type. It sold like 4000 copies in a matter of months of being published in 1543. It had two elements: Vesalius explaining how human anatomy really works — as opposed to what people believed for hundreds of years because they read Galen instead of looking at the human body for themselves — and woodblocks based on Vesalius’s knowledge of the human body from doing huge numbers of autopsies.

Page 164 of Vesalius' bookDe corporis humani fabrica, p. 164

Vesalius took the manuscript, along with 200 woodblocks carved by artists in Venice, packed them up on mules, and sent them over the Alps to Basel, Switzerland, where his favorite printer lived. The trip took five weeks. Vesalius had all these explicit instructions so that the text wrapped around the art in beautiful proportions, and there were lots of little illuminations throughout the book based on his sketches. You can imagine some publisher today saying: “OK, we got a manuscript from this Vesalius guy, so now so we’re gonna make an e-book out of it by getting a bunch of pictures of people with their heads cut open and throwing them in.” But that’s like carelessly-chosen DVD extras or something — it’s not good book thinking. E-books shouldn’t be treated as dumping grounds.

There will eventually be a lot of opportunities for incorporating multimedia into e-books as the display technology improves. A few years ago, my mind was blown when I discovered that you could copy a few lines of code and have video clips in your blog. There were all these scientists with all this video that they were recording for research, and it occurred to me that these clips were the moving illustrations I always wished I’d had.

I used to write a lot about biomechanics, but fell away from it when all that you had at your disposal to explain things was words and static pictures. To really get across the difference between walking and running, or gliding and flying, I’d think, “Oh man, imagine if a magazine could show video!” But then, with the advent of blogs, if I was writing something about bats, I could get bat videos from researchers and work them into the story, putting them where they really belong, so that if someone is reading and finding it hard to understand something, the video helps make it clear.

Silberman: I read a chapter of your new book last night on my iPhone, sitting in a restaurant in San Francisco, waiting for Ed Yong, Betsy Mason, and a bunch of other science writers to join me for dinner. Are the new ways that people are reading your words changing the ways you write?

Zimmer: Sure. With blogging, it doesn’t make sense to be formal, because you can publish so quickly and update instantly. If you write something and make a mistake, you don’t have to have wait for the editors of the newspaper to publish a correction. You can go in yourself and say, “One of my commenters pointed out that I made a mistake, so I fixed the post, and thanks to her.” That’s a very intimate style of writing.

This is a fascinating question for me, and I think about it a lot. A few years ago, I was working on an exhibit about evolution that went into a lot of natural history museums, writing the explanatory texts that hung on the wall. Someone said, “Look, you’ve got 50 words to explain natural selection. And you have to be able to do it in a way that stops a ten-year-old who is running through the room. That’s your challenge.”

Silberman: Indeed. One of the interesting things about the recent news about Kindle Singles is that so many of the headlines are snarky variations of “Amazon Tells Writers to Keep It Short.” Sure, the average Kindle Single may be shorter than a typical book, but after spending the past decade in Incredible Shrinking Magazine land, 10,000 to 30,000 words seems positively luxurious to me — a potential renaissance of long-form writing.

Zimmer: E-books are a lot like blogs, and blogs are basically software — you can do whatever you want with them. You can write one-sentence punditry or a long interview with Oliver Sacks. To e-book vendors like Amazon, it doesn’t matter if you give them a 10-page manuscript or a 10,000-page manuscript. I’ll be curious to find out what the longest e-book anybody submits to Amazon is, but it doesn’t matter, because it’s just digital storage, and storage is trivial.

If you’re a traditional publisher, however, there are things that work and things that don’t in a purely business sense. I’ve talked to editors about writing ideas I have and they’ll say, “Well, that’s interesting, but not quite enough to sustain a whole book.” Within the old business model, they were absolutely right. But when you’re doing an e-book, that stuff is irrelevant. The empty niches left by the book industry, the magazine industry, and newspaper industry are exactly what Amazon is zeroing in on.

It used to be that when you wrote a book and wanted to spread the word about it, you would work with a publicist to come up with a list of people who would receive bound galleys. You had to be very careful about that list, because each galley cost money, so you couldn’t say, “Oh, here’s my list of 200 people who should get advance reading copies.” The publisher would say “What? We can’t afford that many bound galleys!” Now you just send people emails and say, “Hey, I’ve got this book, and I think you might be interested. Want a copy?”

Another big development is the rise of social networks. I’m constantly in your head, because I’m following your tweets throughout the day.

Silberman:  I’m so sorry, Carl.

Zimmer [laughing]: No, I can always unfollow you if I get tired of them, but I think your tweets are great. It’s not uncommon for journalists like us to have several thousand followers. Then all of those people are themselves hubs in their own social networks. If they see something they like, they pass it on, effectively becoming journalists themselves, because they’re saying, “Here’s some information and I think it’s valuable.” So if you take e-books, plus social networks, you have ways of reaching people outside of the traditional ways of making people aware of books.

It used to be that you would send your review copies to a few newspapers and just pray that they picked your book. But there’s a whole other system in place now. I don’t know what the effect is going to be, and that’s one reason I did Brain Cuttings — as an experiment. People may find that this is a really powerful way to make a living as writers by using social networks to propagate information about e-books. I’m curious to see how it develops.

Silberman: What are you working on now?

Zimmer: Along with the usual articles for the Times, National Geographic, and Discover, my next book is already at the publishers. It’s called A Planet of Viruses, and it will be coming out next spring from University of Chicago Press. It started out as an educational project funded by NIH. They had me write essays about viruses as part of a program for high school kids. It’s about how important viruses are to the working of the whole planet.

Silberman: I’m looking forward to it.

Screen Technologies of the Future

Can Science Eliminate Disease?

Written by Hammad Azzam

Aubrey de Gray: You can live to 1,000.

The molecular dance in biological beings is one of the most fascinating orchestrations in the micro-world, and the processes governing this tango are unanimously acknowledged to be mysteriously byzantine. Medicine, which is mainly the act of mending such processes, was until recently a glorious form of trial-and-error, augmented by a web of probabilistic models that output the creation of treatments.

The Medicine of our times, however, is going through a fundamental transformation. We are beginning to peer into the molecular domain, acquiring in-depth details of the functions of the cell and formulating theories that describe the intricate pathways of the biological universe. Medicine is essentially starting to move from the traditional guesswork format to a science based on understanding and modeling the molecular behavior of the organic world.

And like with any other transformation, there are those that can take it to the extreme. Consider, for example, Aubrey de Grey. He is a computer science engineer turned gerontologist (a medical field focused on combating aging) who wrote a book titled Ending Aging outlining an agenda that could extend the human lifespan by an order of magnitude, and at the same time inject youth’s energy into that extended life. Aubrey is after the fountain of youth and he thinks it’s attainable in our lifetime. In fact, on the back cover of his book he declares that many people alive today could live to be a thousand years.

At first sight, this might seem eccentric and even borderline delusional. Stubborn diseases are as stubborn as they have ever been; debilitating and terminal illnesses like Alzheimer’s are still killing people in masses; paralysis is irrecoverable and cancer is so horribly scary that some people refuse to say the word when they refer to the disease. It might feel that we are helpless when it comes to creating new cures, but things are starting to change.

Take for example Alzheimer’s. Elan and other pharmaceutical companies have been pursuing tracks to eradicate the disease altogether with vaccines. Northwestern University School of Medicine Researchers Christopher Bissonnette and Jack Kessler converted stem cells (general cells in the bone marrow) into brain cells that can be used to replace damaged neurons. Star Scientific discovered a compound in nicotine that could eradicate Beta Amyloid deposits, believed to be the underlying cause of Alzheimer’s. In addition, Techniques like Positron Emission Tomography (PET), Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT), and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) are going to unravel the mystery of the neuron jungle. Neuroscientists will be able to produce micro-detailed movies (not images) of the brain, in correlation with patients’ real life experiences. The second decade of the twenty-first century will be the decade of the brain. Scientists will discover in a year more about that black box than was done in the past few decades. We could come to understand what makes us understand and abstract abstraction itself. Brain treatments will be the most natural outcome.

Another example of the deep impacts that scientists have made in medicine is with nervous system injuries (paralysis, blindness, deafness, etc). It is common knowledge that once a nerve suffers extreme damage, there is no coming back, be it through a broken neck, a severed back, or optical nerve impairment. Once the nerve is damaged, the delivery mechanism is completely arrested. In the not so distant future, that will start changing.

According to Anthony Atala, an authority in Regenerative Medicine, building an organ will be “like baking a cake”. His recent TED Conference lecture was highlighted by a video that showed a 3D organ printing process. “It takes about seven hours to print a kidney” he proclaims and then he shows the audience a fresh out of the oven actual kidney printed by a 3D organ printer while he was presenting!

Marry that with Embryonic Stem Cell research (which works by taking embryonic cells at the very early phase of fertilization, and chemically altering them to incorporate the DNA of the target patient) and you’ll have an infinite supply of customer-to-order body parts ready for deployment. Scientists will potentially have organs that not only match the patient’s signature (thus avoiding rejection), but are also young; embryonic young. In theory, this seems very promising. In practice, results coming in have matched the hype. When was the last time you heard of someone paralyzed, from the hip down, reclaiming control over his bowel movement and walking the streets, or a blind man regaining 90% of his vision (that’s probably better vision than half the people reading this article).

What was squarely placed on the miracles shelf throughout history has happened a few times last year.

Last on the list, and by no means least, is cancer. The list of breakthroughs last year can probably fill a dozen books. To name a few, Nanomedicine helps drug delivery that precisely targets tumors, sparing healthy cells from side effects; stem cells explains why some cancers recur, paving a way for effective root-cause treatments; and immune system boosts empower the body to fight off tumors naturally and effectively. In addition, the demise of cancer could be in early detection. When we start to detect cancer cells, with precision, when they are but a few cells in size, eradicating them will be relatively easy.

Still, what is clear is that the human body is turning out to be much more complex than anticipated. Every time we peel a layer, the onion seems to be getting bigger. Will Aubrey and his team be reporting on the advancements in medicine in the year 2145 or will it be his grandchildren. Luckily, we won’t have to wait that long. The story will start to unravel in the coming few years…

And I’ll be watching…

Dr. Hammad Azzam is the author of Shifting Borderlines: How Science Fiction is Becoming Science. His last post for Forbes discussed The Blurring Line Between Science And Science Fiction

Robots: From the Boardroom to the Bedroom—and Everywhere in Between

By Jack Uldrich.

image

In the spring of 2011, AeroVironment released a video demonstrating the company’s latest robot. Called an “ornithoper,” the tiny robotic device resembled and mimicked the quick-moving actions of a hummingbird. The “Nano-Hummingbird,” as it has been dubbed, is a fitting metaphor for our next trend—robotics. This is because, like hummingbirds, the robotics of the future are going to be faster, more agile, and many will take on the forms and actions of things we see in nature.

(Editor’s note: The following is an excerpt from Jack Uldrich’s forthcoming book, 20/20 Vision: A Futurist Looks Ahead to the Ten Trends That Will Shape the World of 2020, that he writing with the able assistance of fellow futurist Simon Anderson, host of www.futur1st.com. This chapter covers advances in the field of robotics.)

To appreciate robotics extraordinary advances in the coming decade let’s catch up with Gerhardt, who was recently promoted to Senior Vice President for Robotic Business Development at a large multi-national corporation in Berlin, Germany. After spending his first decade-and-a-half at the company in the field of robotics, he is the perfect fit for the position.

Gerhardt came to the attention of his employer after leading the University of Bielefeld to the “Robocup” championship where his team of nimble robots crushed the team from Singapore Polytechnic. He was first tasked with helping install the company’s prototype automated robotic warehouse. Less than two years later, Gerhardt was charged with overseeing the entire operation.

After it was demonstrated the robots had saved the company millions of dollars by reducing labor costs, speeding up delivery time and reducing energy costs (which were achieved because robots don’t require as much space to move about and because they can work without lights and in colder temperatures), Gerhardt was placed in charge of the company’s world-wide transition to robotic warehouse systems. In this capacity, he came to the attention of company leaders. This was as much for the political acumen he demonstrated in easing tensions with unions and the media over concerns that robots were threatening traditional trade jobs as it was for his expertise in robotics.

In effort to give him more exposure to how the company was planning on using robotics, Gerhardt was cross-transferred to its major airfreight division where he worked on integrating self-driving forklifts and trucks into the company’s global supply chain. His particular focus was improving self-driving robots’ safety and reliability and he left the project only after his robots performed without an accident for six months.

Gerhardt followed this work with a temporary assignment at the Fraunhofer Institute, Europe’s largest application-oriented research organization, where he worked in the field of “swarm” robotics and studied how large numbers of robots could work in coordination to achieve larger goals. In Gerhardt’s case, he specialized in developing an “ant army” of micro-robots that could work together efficiently in search-and-rescue operations. His work was later credited with rescuing scores of people in Turkey after an earthquake leveled an apartment building.

Noting how police and firemen bonded with the larger robotic search-and-rescue companions used during that operation, Gerhardt then took what many of his peers considered a risky career move and agreed to help the company expand into the educational marketplace by creating robots that felt and appeared more human-like. After suffering a series of setbacks, Gerhardt’s decision to change positions was ultimately vindicated when some of his robots were far more successful in instructing children with special needs than any previous attempts had been. It was a source of special pride for Gerhardt that children with autism often responded better to instructions from his robots than they did their human teachers.

It was Gerhardt’s unique combination of experience with traditional manufacturing robots as well as personal service robots that then secured him his next position, serving as the company’s first-ever Director of Robotic Resources. In this newly created position—which created some friction within the organization when it was given responsibilities equal to those of the director of human resources—he was charged overseeing the corporation’s entire fleet of robots, including everything from those that staffed the warehouses, cleaned the hallways and provided security in the parking lots, to the growing number of personal service robots which were used by company employees to attend meetings remotely. The latter robots alone were estimated to have saved the company $37 million in travel costs and reduced its carbon footprint by 84 million tons. The job, however, had its moments. Gerhardt’s greatest challenge came when he was charged with overseeing the company’s crisis management response team in the wake of a fatal accident in which an automated warehouse robotic system killed one employee and damaged millions of dollars worth of inventory.

After serving in this position for three years, Gerhardt’s extensive experience was tapped to lead the corporations’ expansion into developing new robots for the military, educational, healthcare and aging services markets under the company’s new “Developing Robotics” division. As part of his responsibilities, he regularly visited the company’s North American research and development facility outside of Cleveland, Ohio.

On this particular day, Gerhardt’s first stop was the educational lab where company researchers and roboticists were developing a new generation of robots designed to serve as classroom assistants. Fueled by their extraordinary success in assisting children with special needs, the company was keen on reaching a wider audience. Gerhardt was also anxious to expand this business because he knew the time was ripe. Since 2012, the robotics toy market had grown at a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of 80 percent and now more than half of all children in North America, East Asia and Europe owned at least one robot. In short, even though their parents may not yet be ready to embrace robotic instructors, Gerhardt was confident the children were.

Gerhardt watched as one experimental robot, which was capable of mimicking 156 unique human-like expressions, silently monitored the classroom of rambunctious kindergartners. Using its onboard cameras and sophisticated facial recognition technology, the robot was able to detect that a particular child was having a difficult time understanding the rules of the game she wanted to play. At a gentle pace and careful to avoid bumping into the other children who were running around, the robot addressed the girl by her first name and asked, “Can I answer any questions for you?” Thinking nothing unusual of a robot speaking to her, the girl looked into its face—which had intentionally been designed not to look like a human—and responded, “Yes. I don’t understand the game.”

“Have you read the rules?” asked the robot. The student nodded affirmatively. “Do you understand all of the words?” The girl sheepishly replied that she did. Sensing the hesitation in her voice, the robot projected the instructions—which it had pulled from the RFID chip on the game’s box—on the wall and asked if there were any words she didn’t understand. The girl pointed to the words “diagonal” and “reverse.” The robot provided formal definitions and then focused its projector on the game board and demonstrated the rules in action. “Oh, that’s easy,” she replied in a satisfied tone.

A few moments later, the robot detected the student was again frustrated. This time, however, upon hearing a tone that it recognized as confrontational, the robot alerted a teacher in another room and transmitted to the instructor a live recording of what was happening—two students were fighting over the game. The teacher rushed to the scene and peacefully resolved the issue without having to threaten “to ask the robot what—or who—caused the problem.” Gerhardt was pleased with the demonstration. It was the company’s stated goal not to use robots to replace teachers but rather help them better interact and engage with students at those points when personalized instruction was essential.

Following a brief conference call with officials of Federation International de Football Association (FIFA) in which he discussed how his company’s miniature butterfly-like robots could be used to discreetly monitor the crowds at the 2022 World Cup soccer games in Qatar (and thus prevent any repeats of the ugly “hooligan” incidents that had marred the 2018 games in Russia), Gerhardt strolled to the second floor of the research and development lab to peak in on the company’s latest developments to create better robots to help the world’s growing number of senior citizens.

At Gerhardt’s urging the company had recently made a strategic decision to supplement its traditional home-aid robotic business with the creation and development of exoskeletons—or wearable robotics. Recent advances in flexible electronics and nanomaterials made the devices extremely lightweight and much less obvious and restrictive than the previous models. The devices also had the added benefit of giving seniors what they really wanted—independence. While some seniors enjoyed using brain-neural devices to control external robots to perform such household chores as getting a cup of coffee or washing laundry, the vast majority still preferred doing these things themselves.

This is not to say that a market didn’t exist for such robots. In fact, Gerhardt was convinced that because of accelerating advances in biotechnology, genomics and regenerative medicine, the fastest growing segment for robotics would be “super” seniors—or those people over 100 years of age. And since exoskeletons were inappropriate for this demographic segment, Gerhardt felt the company should focus their efforts on alternative robotic solutions for them.

Unlike their younger counter-parts, this segment of the market required robotics that addressed the unique needs of chronic aging. The most serious of which was loneliness, and Gerhardt was well versed in the research showing how effective pets were in minimizing depression. To this end, he spearheaded the effort to develop a series of new robotic pets, and he couldn’t help but smile when even he couldn’t distinguish between a real dog and his company’s latest creation. He liked to joke to potential customers that the easiest way to tell a real dog apart from a robotic dog was that the latter didn’t need to eat or go outside to relieve itself and instead—due to the innovative use of new solar paints and longer-lasting batteries—it only had to visit its recharger on the rarest of occasions.

The robotic pets also had the added capability of serving as health monitors which could send alerts to family members or health care providers if their “masters” temperature or blood pressure increased or decreased to dangerous levels or if they didn’t move from their couch or bed for a certain period of time (suggesting a more serious problem.) These features had made robotic pets a popular gift for children to give their aging parents, but Gerhardt was even more optimistic that within the year the federal governments of Japan, Germany and the United States would begin covering the cost of robots for those patients who could demonstrate the device’s primary purpose was health care-related.

After peering in on the status of a new surgical robotic device to assist in treating brain aneurysms, Gerhardt’s final visit of the day took him to the company’s “skunk lab” where researchers were working on the company’s most controversial project—adult entertainment robots. Setting aside his own personal and moral objections to these robots, Gerhardt was aware that history had amply demonstrated the industry most likely to embrace new technology—be it the video cassette tape or the Internet—was the adult entertainment industry. In Gerhardt’s mind it was inevitable that robotics would follow suit. Indeed, his company was behind the curve in this regard. One of his competitors already had on the market a life-sized robot capable of giving a 90-minute massage.

Gerhardt was informed by a fellow robotist in the lab that the touch and feel of its hands were indistinguishable from the hands of a real person. It didn’t surprise him, but he did wonder how he was going to inform his younger brother—who was a professional massage therapist—of this latest development. He then contemplated how far the entire field of robotics had progressed since he graduated from university and could only smile. It was one thing to construct a robot to play a game by kicking a soccer ball, it was altogether something different to construct a robot that could engage in the most intimate of human activities.

Humans in 50 years:

John Holden asks scientists how humans might change over the next 50 years. Will we become cyborgs? Will we be disease free? And what have vacuum cleaners got to do with it? 

Prof Charlie Spillane, Centre for Chromosome Biology, NUI Galway

Exciting new opportunities for human enhancement are now emerging due to converging technological advances. In robotics and nanotechnology it includes cybernetic boody augmentations and artificial red blood cells; in information technology, it means artificial intelligence, computer-aided human decision making, mobile computing and smart clothes; in cognitive science, it takes in augmented reality, “smart” drugs, neural implants; and in biotechnology it involves genetics, immunology, synthetic biology and bio-engineering.

Technological synergies are now emerging that offer new opportunities for human enhancement. These synergies are likely to herald a Human 2.0 era, in which human enhancement technologies are one of the next science, technology and innovation frontiers.

Technological nations that embrace, rather than fear, the advent of human enhancement will likely be the future leaders in the provision of human enhancement technology products, services and innovations.

Human enhancement is not new. The process has been underway since humans developed their first enhanced skills, such as making fire, writing and the cultivation of food crops.

Such technological enhancement of human capabilities has facilitated human population expansion from 200 million people just over 2000 years ago to 7,000 million people on the planet today.

Enhancement of human capabilities continues to be achieved in a multitude of ways, not all of which have to be based on genetics. Some everyday examples include reading, exercising, nutrition, studying, glasses, prosthetic limbs, hearing aids, computers, vaccination, smart phones and Viagra.

Dr Mauro Dragone, UCD School of Computer Science and Informatics

I’m working on a European-wide project that will make domestic life for humans easier for all concerned in the future. We are trying to build intelligent ecologies of robotic devices combining sensors, household appliances and mobile robots. Not just humanoid robots working in your home but broader home systems.

We already have lots of little robots working in our houses. Various domestic exist appliances with limited intelligence: alarm clocks, TVs, cookers, vacuum cleaners. The challenge is to make those entities learn how to work together in an intelligent way.

Imagine a house in which we install an autonomous vacuum cleaner and also an alarm system. With cooperation between the two systems, the vacuum cleaner can automatically learn that their user doesn’t like the cleaner to be activated at certain times of the day. So it will do its cleaning when, for example, the user is out of the house.

We are trying to build systems that adapt to the human, rather than the human having to adapt to the device. [These are] systems that can learn to cooperate and do work more efficiently. We are designing devices and artificial intelligence solutions that mimic brains found in biology. These brains will be connected across the whole house system and so every device will share knowledge and help each other to learn.

Dr Ross McManus, Institute of Molecular Medicine, Trinity College Dublin

The point at which our understanding of biology can be translated into treatments for diseases is getting closer all the time and I think the landscape will be very different 50 years from now.

The recent sad case of Batten’s disease in an Irish infant has however raised awareness of the possibilities for gene therapy in the treatment of inherited disease. Gene therapy is in its infancy but offers real hope for the future.

A key development will be the harnessing of stem cells to replace damaged tissues. Coupled with the repair of genetic defects in such cells prior to reintroduction to the body, this should lead to radically improved treatments.

Individual genome sequencing will become the norm in the near future and this will usher in an era of personalised medicine, allowing for individualised, specific drug treatments, but also the identification of our very own palette of hidden mutations that could cause disease in our children were our partners in possession of the same defects.

Use of pre-implantation screening of embryos with DNA sequencing, will cause a big reduction in the rates of inherited diseases – although it may take some of the spontaneity out of making babies. Sequencing information can also be used to identify our risk of getting a whole horde of more common diseases, such as arthritis, heart disease and asthma, so that we can take pre-emptive action.Knowing thine enemy intimately is the key to designing drugs for specific cancers, many of which have individual defects at the genetic level, another front on which we will see radical improvements in the medium term.

Dr Rachel Armstrong, senior TED Fellow, Avatar group, The Bartlett School of Architecture, London

There will be a much greater difference in the ageing of well off and poor people. Private medicine will be necessary for health maintenance while public services will deal with a lottery of dire emergencies owing to demand.

Those with access to good health care will enjoy preventative and maintenance treatments, so that they stave off ageing for longer cosmetically and physiologically. Wealthy older people will be having children later and it will not be unusual for women to bear children in their sixties, perhaps even older as biologically they will be as healthy as women 20 years their junior.

© 2011 The Irish Times

What will happen to us? Forecasters tackle the extremely deep future. By Graeme Wood

The Royal Institution of Great Britain has stood on the same site since 1799, and on most days it would seem one of the older and fustier buildings in central London. But on April 6, time did a funny thing: The institution’s 212 years of existence suddenly contracted, and went from seeming unimaginably long to unimaginably short.

“Our sun formed 4.5 billion years ago, but it’s got 6 billion more before the fuel runs out,” Sir Martin Rees, the Astronomer Royal, told the audience seated among the busts and weathered books of the institution’s second-story library. “It won’t be humans who witness the sun’s demise: It will be entities as different from us as we are from a bug.”

The occasion for Rees’s mind-bending assertion was his acceptance of the 2011 Templeton Prize, an annual cash award of $1.7 million, payable to individuals who have made “an exceptional contribution to affirming life’s spiritual dimension” — in Rees’s case, by looking millions of years into the future and venturing a guess as to what might be waiting.

Humans have been interested in the future for millennia, mostly as a subject for theologians. But theologians were, along with everyone else, thinking small. Most humans who have ever lived have died in conditions almost exactly like the ones into which they were born, and without written history had no way to grasp that the future might be different at all. Only now have we gained the scientific knowledge necessary to appreciate how exactly how deep a rabbit-hole the future really is: not just long enough to see empires rise and crumble, but long enough to make all human history so far seem like a sneeze of the gods.

This newfound appreciation for the depths of time has led a handful of thinkers like Rees, a theoretical cosmologist by training, to begin venturing some of humanity’s first real educated guesses about what may lie far, far, far ahead. Serious futurologists are not a large group yet. “It’s a fairly new area of inquiry,” says Nick Bostrom, an Oxford University philosophy professor who heads the school’s Future of Humanity Institute. But they are trying to give a first draft of a map of the future, using the kinds of rigor that theologians and uneducated guessers from previous generations didn’t have at their disposal.

In the history of prediction, there are a few examples

of rigorous attempts to look far into the future — long-term climate-change modelers, say, or radiophysicists who consider where to stash nuclear waste. But more often, Bostrom says, speculation about the future has been “a projection screen, on which we display our hopes and fears.” Think of Karl Marx, laying out a path for history based mostly on his own aspirations, rather than on anything that would today qualify as science. “Even just trying to get it right is something that distinguishes [us] as a small subset,” Bostrom says.

Their methods are scientific and philosophical, and they all come down to trying to understand what all those zeroes in numbers like “6 billion” really mean. Scientists now have firmly grounded hypotheses about how Earth and the solar system will be different in 50 million years, for example, as distinct from 500 million or 50 billion, and can rule out some possibilities for what will happen at each point. Armed with data from history, they can use rough computer models to simulate how human populations might rise and fall, how their technology might accelerate, and how thousands or millions of years of human activity might or might not change the planet.

Most important, they’re systematically analyzing for the first time the worryingly numerous ways in which humanity might fail to survive to see that long future. Having a clearer sense of the future will give hints about how to act now to keep the real doomsday scenarios at bay. In the past, thinking about the world in a thousand years meant thinking about a religious apocalypse, as in Norse mythology’s prediction that humanity and the universe will conclude when Yggdrasil, the tree that holds up the world, begins to creak and shrug. Academics today, including Rees, are finding such predictions wanting — even if the reality could turn out to be in some ways just as dark.

Nick Bostrom’s Future of Humanity Institute is in St. Ebbes, central Oxford, a district named for the site of a church that has been built and rebuilt over about a thousand years. The Faculty of Theology, he says, would have been the home for his institute in any other century. But when the institute was founded in 2005, the natural home for it had shifted toward the secular. It straddles a departmental boundary between Oxford’s Faculty of Philosophy and its Martin School, a creation of the computer-science whiz James Martin, meant to encourage interdisciplinary thought about science, policy, and risk.

The community of thinkers on distant-future questions stretches across disciplinary bounds, with the primary uniting trait a willingness to think about the future as a topic for objective study, rather than a space for idle speculation or science fictional reverie. They include theoretical cosmologists like Sean Carroll of the California Institute of Technology, who recently wrote a book about time, and nonacademic technology mavens like Ray Kurzweil, the precocious inventor and theorist. What binds this group together is that they are not, says Bostrom, “just trying to tell an interesting story.” Instead, they aim for precision. In its fundamentals, Carroll points out, the universe is a “relatively simple system,” compared, say, to a chaotic system like a human body — and thus “predicting the future is actually a feasible task,” even “for ridiculously long time periods.”

Indeed, to a cosmologist steeped in the vastness of time, 6 billion years may not even seem so long. Carroll puts the sun’s remaining years in stark perspective, noting that one can go further and set one’s cosmological egg timer for the burnout of all the stars in the universe (about one thousand million million years from now) and for the evaporation of the last black holes (about a googol, or one followed by a hundred zeroes, years from now). “After that, the universe will simply continue to expand and dilute, and that will go on forever,” he says.

Also among the cosmologists is Rees, the speaker at the Royal Institution, who turned his attention to the end of time after a career in physics reckoning with time’s beginning. An understanding of these vast time scales, he contends, should have a large and humbling effect on our predictions about human evolution. “It’s hard to think of humans as anything like the culmination of life,” Rees says. “We should expect humans to change, just as Darwin did when he wrote that ‘no living species will preserve its unaltered likeness into a distant futurity.’ ” Most probably, according to Rees, the most important transformations of the species will be nonbiological. “Evolution in the future won’t be determined by natural selection, but by technology,” he says — both because we have gone some distance toward mastering our biological weaknesses, and because computing power has sped up to a rate where the line between human and computer blurs. (Some thinkers call the point when technology reaches this literally unthinkable level of advancement the “singularity,” a coinage by science fiction writer Vernor Vinge.)

While an essential part of the toolkit of a futurologist is knowledge of the past, science is now crossing a line where the past may be less helpful as a guide: It has moved beyond replicating the work of nature, and begun introducing eventualities never before seen on earth. A seemingly benign example is chilling materials to within a fraction of absolute zero, many times colder than the coldest place in the universe. Potentially less benign are certain types of high-energy physics research, or DNA experimentation that creates beings unknown on this planet.

For Rees, then, and many other thinkers about the future, a central preoccupation is making sure that humans survive to see it. Only 0.01 percent of all species that have ever existed continue to do so. We happen to be one of them, for now. When Rees looked at the myriad ways in which the present is more perilous than the past in his 2003 book “Our Final Hour,” he set the odds of human extinction in the next century at 50 percent.

Bostrom, the Oxford philosopher, puts the odds at about 25 percent, and says that many of the greatest risks for human survival are ones that could play themselves out within the scope of current human lifetimes. “The next hundred years or so might be critical for humanity,” Bostrom says, listing as possible threats the usual apocalyptic litany of nuclear annihilation, man-made or natural viruses and bacteria, or other technological threats, such as microscopic machines, or nanobots, that run amok and kill us all.

This is quite literally the stuff of Michael Crichton novels. Thinkers about the future deal constantly with those who dismiss their speculation as science fiction. But Bostrom, who trained in neuroscience and cosmology as well as philosophy, says he’s mining the study of the future for guidance on how we should prioritize our actions today. “I’m ultimately interested in finding out what we have most reason to do now, to make the world better in some way,” he says.

So if we really understood the future, how would we behave? “It turns out that the reduction of existential risk turns out to be one of the most important things we can do,” he says. “It turns out, if you act and consider all good — including that of future generations — you could outweigh the good you can do today by eliminating world hunger, say, or curing malaria.” Saving a billion from famine today is, by this calculation, a minor concern compared with making sure no extinction-level event snuffs out the opportunity for a trillion more to live in the centuries to come.

There is, both in Bostrom’s scenarios and in Rees’s, the possibility of a long and bright future, should we manage to have any future at all. Some of the key technologies capable of going awry also have the potential to keep us alive and prospering — making humans and post-humans a more durable species. Bostrom imagines that certain advances that are currently theoretical could combine to free us some of the more fragile aspects of our nature, such as the ability to be wiped out by a simple virus, and keep the species around indefinitely. If neuropsychologists learn to manipulate the brain with precision, we could drug ourselves into conditions of not only enhanced happiness but enhanced morality as well, aiming for less fragile or violent societies far more durable than we enjoy now, in the nuclear shadow.

And if human minds could be uploaded onto computers, for example, a smallpox plague wouldn’t be so worrisome (though maybe a computer-virus outbreak, or a spilled pot of coffee, would be). Not having a body means not being subject to time’s ravages on human flesh. “When we have friendly superintelligent machines, or space colonization, it would be easy to see how we might continue for billions of years,” Bostrom said, far beyond the moment when Rees’s post-human would sit back in his futuristic lawn chair, pop open a cold one, and watch the sun run out of fuel.

There is one surprising survival scenario of particular worry for Bostrom, however — one that involves not a physical death but a moral one. The technologies that might liberate us from the threat of extinction might also change humans not into post-humans, but into creatures who have shed their humanity altogether. Imagine, he suggests, that the hypothetical future entities (evolved biologically, or uploaded to computers and enhanced by machine intelligence) have slowly eroded their human characteristics. The mental properties and concerns of these creatures might be unrecognizable.

“What gives humans value is not their physical substance, but that we are thinking, feeling beings that have plans and relationships with others, and enjoy art, et cetera,” Bostrom says. “So there could be profound transformations that wouldn’t destroy value and might allow the creation of any greater value” by having a deeper capacity to love or to appreciate art than we present humans do. “But you could also imagine beings that were intelligent or efficient, but that don’t add value to the world, maybe because they didn’t have subjective experience.”

Bostrom ranks this possibility among the more likely ways mankind could extinguish itself. It is certainly the most insidious. And it could happen any number of ways: with a network of uploaded humans that essentially abolishes the individual, making her a barely distinguishable module in a larger intelligence. Or, in a sort of post-human Marxist dystopia, humans could find themselves dragooned into soulless ultra-efficiency, without all the wasteful acts of friendship and artistic creation that made life worth living when we were merely human.

“That would count as a catastrophe,” Bostrom notes.

There is, of course, a long history of prognosticators whom history has outwitted. “It’s tough to make predictions,” as Yogi Berra said, “especially about the future.” The futurists are undeterred, and point out that a lot of predictions — think death and taxes, or, as Bostrom points out, “the continued existence of trees, annoying people, the need to eat” — have proven right, and it’s just the crazy and wrong ones that get singled out for ridicule.

They also point out that prediction is something we all do anyway. And even if we should be humble about predicting specific events, we have to try. “We make plans,” Bostrom says. “Suppose we put money into a pension fund. If you thought in 20 years there would be a space monster coming with big sacks of gold for you, then you would act differently.” Since we assign a low probability to a space-monster Santa Claus, we sock away retirement money, and prepare — as humans have for generations before us — for fat years and lean years.

“We know a lot less about the future than we know about the past,” says Sean Carroll. “But predicting it is a nonnegotiable part of what it means to be human.”

Graeme Wood is a contributing editor at The Atlantic.

© Copyright 2011 Globe Newspaper Company.

Rethinking Growth:

From SEEDMAGAZINE.

Herman Daly applies a biophysical lens to the economy and finds that bigger isn’t necessarily better.

Herman Daly is an ecological economist and co-founder and associate editor of the journal Ecological Economics. As the World Bank’s senior environmental economist from 1988 to 1994, Daly focused on Latin American poverty and development and helped to establish the discipline of ecological economics. Today, based at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, Daly spoke with Seed editor Maywa Montenegro about growth, technology, happiness, and the steady-state economy.

Seed: When did you first start thinking about a steady-state economy?
As an undergraduate, taking a course in the history of economic thought and reading Malthus. Then in graduate school I studied under Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, a pioneer in relating the entropy law to economic theory. Elementary economic theory describes something called a circular flow diagram: Firms supply goods and services to households, which in turn supply labor and capital factors of production back to the firms. This flow goes around and around, and money flows in the opposite direction to pay for it. The way it’s usually depicted is as a closed circulatory system. What’s ignored is the economy’s digestive system: the input of low-entropy raw materials from the environment and the expulsion of high-entropy waste products back into the environment. A fundamental assumption of those who treat the economy like a totally circular exchange is that the environment is infinite relative to us, that natural resources and space to absorb our waste are not scarce. The assumption is no longer valid.

This article was originally published in the February 2009 print edition of Seed, as part of a post-crisis scientific look at the year ahead. See more of the Universe in ‘09 special issue here.

Seed: So what does this mean for growth?
What is growth? Is it a temporary process to arrive at a state that we will then want to maintain? Or is growth a process which is itself desirable and is supposed to go on forever? Right now nobody defines a state of sufficiency. For example, in a recent growth report financed by the World Bank, experts took great hope from the fact that several countries had managed to grow at 7 percent for 25 years. Their goal—7 percent growth for another 25 years—will lead to a quintupling of the global economy and all that flows into it. And come 2033, will we be satisfied, or will the goalposts move once again? The idea of steady-state economics is that growth really should be a temporary process to arrive at some level of sufficiency.

Seed: How will we know when that level is reached? Is there a way to measure it?
Well, we don’t measure it because our GDP, our national accounting system, does not separate costs and benefits of growth. Pollution, for instance, is not subtracted as a cost of growth. In fact, the expenditures and efforts to clean up pollution are added as a benefit. This is a strange, asymmetric entry into the accounts, because if you’re not going to count the cost of pollution, then you shouldn’t count its cleanup as a benefit.

Seed: How would you change the system of accounting?
What we tax mostly now is income from the input of labor and capital, what economists called “value added.”
Value added to what? To the resources extracted from nature, which are treated as zero. So, the idea is to shift our tax base away from value added and toward the resources themselves. If we want to increase efficiency, then we have to begin by making things more expensive. We’re careful how we use gold. We’re not so careful how we use aluminum.

If you start with a vision of the economy as a subsystem of the larger biosphere, as it grows, it takes into itself more and more of the total system. Assuming people do things intelligently, as the economy gets bigger, it absorbs the least vital environmental services first. So the costs of growth are inevitably going to go up as you exploit ever more valuable resources. At some point, the expansion will not be worth the costs.That’s the optimal scale from the point of view of human concerns.

But this doesn’t mean the end of development. Growth is more and more of the same stuff. Development is the same amount of better stuff.

Seed: But what if scientists are able to improve recycling to the point that we can endlessly reuse existing materials? Or suppose that they genetically engineer a microbe, for example, that converts solar energy into ethanol. Could growth then continue indefinitely?
You can certainly increase the efficiency of recycling, but you can’t, from a physical point of view, perfect it. And even microbes are subject to the laws of thermodynamics. They’re not going to make this energy—ethanol—out of nothing. They’re going to
need raw material inputs and solar energy in order to make those inputs, and, of course, they’re going to generate waste products. So I’m not saying it’s not a good adaptation, but it wouldn’t eliminate limits. Technology is successful in so far as it respects the laws of physics; it’s not magic.

Seed: What underpins your optimism that people might eventually embrace a no-growth economy?
We’re encouraged by a number of studies by economists and psychologists on happiness—almost all show that beyond a certain threshold, further increases in GDP really do not increase self-evaluated happiness. They do, of course, continue to increase environmental costs. That gives us some idea of what’s enough. Whatever that amount is, it’s a lot less than average per capita GDP in the United States. And this, of course, is a highly contentious point. People really don’t like to talk about limits to income. We’re now willing to talk about a minimum income, but we’re not quite willing to talk about a maximum yet. Yet if the total amount of economic growth is limited, then that should be on the agenda as well.

Seed:What would you say is the just and proper range, the limit to inequality?
If you look around at various institutions such as the government, the military, or universities, they have a factor of around 20 between the richest and the poorest. In US corporations it’s 500 or more. I think you could probably reward all real differences
of contribution within a range of 25. But let’s just start with a factor 100, get some experience, and work down.

Seed:How, if at all, does steady-state economics apply to the current financial crisis?
Finance is based heavily on things called “present value maximization models”—which means, essentially, that you’re discounting the future by a presumed rate of growth. You run an exponential growth equation backward to get a present value. So via the discount rate, growth is fundamentally built into finance. Well, that’s a very big assumption because the biosphere of which we’re a part is not growing.

One of my intellectual heroes, the Nobel Prize– winning chemist Frederick Soddy, put it another way. He said the problem in our economy is the one thing that economists have in their system which does not obey the laws of physics. And that is money. Money is the symbol of wealth, and yet it operates on laws which contradict the laws that wealth operates on. It’s very strange to have a symbol system that operates in ways that are fundamentally different from the thing being symbolized.

Seed: Do you think that in the future all economics will necessarily be ecological economics?
That’s what I expect. I mean, we’re faced with two impossibilities. On the one hand, it’s politically impossible to stop growth. On the other hand, it’s biophysically impossible to continue it ad infinitum. So, which impossibility is fundamentally impossible? Well, you know, I’ll take my chances with trying to change the politically impossible, because I don’t think I can change the biophysically impossible. ∞

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Read more of Daly’s thoughts on Homo Economicus, the thermodynamics roots of economics, population, and more at the Center for Advancement of a Steady State Economy. The Encyclopedia of Earth has also gathered an extensive collection in this E-book tribute to Herman Daly.

 

Space Forensics Might Point to a Martian Ancestry

By Ray Villard .   From  Discovery News.

Mars_microbes

Our search for life beyond Earth could take us down the road to a shocking look into the mirror — a climax straight out of a Twilight Zone plot.

A team of researchers at MIT is proposing to apply forensic science testing on the Martian surface. Specifically, the task would be to do DNA and RNA sequencing on Martian microbes (if they exist) to see if they share a common genetic origin with us.

SLIDE SHOW: Top 10 Places to Find Alien Life

DNEWS VIDEO: ALIEN SPECULATION

This addresses the novel question of panspermia — that we are descended from Mars life that migrated to Earth. Such testing could also offer key insights into how serious a risk Martian microbes would present to human colonists.

The MIT team led by Christopher Carr and Maria Zuber (head of MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences) and Gary Ruvkun, a molecular biologist at the Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard University, are proposing to build an instrument to send to Mars and test for extraterrestrial genomes.

Despite the numerous landers and rovers we’ve sent already, the only surface biology experiments were carried out in a bold but premature effort in 1976 aboard the trailblazing NASA Viking landers. The confusing results from these tests remain controversial and ambiguous today.

Invaders From Space

Such a mini-forensics lab would test the hypothesis that life on Earth may have come from Mars. The Martians didn’t arrive in spaceships, but microbes hitchhiking aboard meteorites blasted off Mars by ancient impacts. After millions of years in space, the meteorites would fall onto Earth and the microbes adapt to a new home.

Alh84001_copm

Experiments done at Harvard University show that bacterial spores can survive riding alone on a simulated meteorite impact on Earth — even without airbags. There is also data that microbes could also hibernate for the thousands of years in the vacuum of space before falling to Earth.

An estimated one billion tons of rock have already traveled from Mars to Earth. The controversy continues today as to whether we already have alien biological evidence for Martians aboard the Allan Hills Martian meteorite, ALH 84001.

But panspermia is not a two-way street because it is much harder to get enough asteroid impact energy to launch microbe-laden Earth rocks toward Mars (because Earth has a deeper gravitational well for the rocks to blast out of). What’s more, Mars probably became more suitable to the origin of life before the slower cooling, and more heavily bombarded, Earth did. There is compelling evidence for the existence of a great Martian ocean that once existed 3-4 billion years ago. As on Earth, life would be expected to have originated in such an ocean.

Drill_0280_H

Digging Up Life

The Mars genome experiment would need to be aboard a lander or rover capable of drilling into the Martian soil and retrieving a sample from beneath the surface. Life could hang out just below the surface where there could be water and protection from solar UV radiation. This is suspected to be the case at the Phoenix Polar Lander site in the Martian arctic.

The miniature lab would isolate any living microbes that might be present, or even microbial remnants. The device would autonomously separate out the genetic material and then amplify the DNA or RNA in microbes by using the same techniques used for forensic DNA testing on Earth. It would then use biochemical markers to search for genetic sequences.

The shocker would be that the genetic sequences matched those found in Earth microbes. The conclusion: “we are Martians!”

But wait, how could we be sure they weren’t really Earth microbes that hitched a ride to Mars aboard a U.S. or Soviet spacecraft, and then colonized the Red Planet?

“There may indeed be some confusion,” says astrobiologist Chris McKay of NASA’s Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California. “If we find organisms on Mars that are particularly cold adapted we might conclude that they did not come from the Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena, California (where Mars landers were built) or the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.”

This type testing is critical say the researchers because an alien microbe that is similar to Earth organisms is much more likely to be infectious to terrestrial life forms, than would a form of life that independently evolved.

This could give us pause about sending humans to a germ-laden alien world. It would be an ironic twist on the H.G. Wells classic 1898 novel “The War of the Worlds,” where invading Martians succumb to the common cold from Earth microbes.

See, Wells’ Martian warriors should have done genome testing first.

Backwards step on looking into the future. By Ben Goldacre

The Guardian, Saturday 23 April 2011.
Scientific journals can be as bad as newspapers in preferring eye-catching stories to negative findings

    Last year a mainstream psychology researcher called Daryl Bem published a competent academic paper, in a well-respected journal, showing evidence of precognition – the ability to see the future. Instead of designing new studies to see whether people could consciously tell you about the future, he ran some classic psychology experiments backwards.

    In experiments on subliminal influence, participants are presented with two mirror images of the same picture. They are asked which they prefer, and are likely to choose the images where a subliminal negative image is flashed up for milliseconds, before they make their choice. In the Bem study, the negative images were flashed up after they made their choice, but participants were still less likely to choose the image on the side with the nasty subliminal image.

    This was all pretty kosher, and statistically significant, and I wasn’t very interested, for the same reasons you weren’t. If humans really could see the future, we’d probably know about it already; and extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, rather than one-off findings. There’s plenty of amazing stuff in our infinitely distracting universe and I’ll pay attention to the cheesy precognition stuff when the evidence is good and replicated.

    Now the study has been replicated. Three academics – Stuart Richie, Chris French, and Richard Wiseman – have re-run three of these backwards experiments, just as Bem ran them, and found no evidence of precognition. They submitted their negative results to the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, which published Bem’s paper last year, and the journal rejected their paper out of hand. We never, they explained, publish studies that replicate other work.

    This squabble illustrates two problems facing all of science, which have never been adequately addressed.

    The first is the problem of context: these positive results may have happened purely by chance, against a backdrop of negative results that never reached the light of day. Researchers and academic journals, just like newspaper journalists, are more likely to publish eye-catching positive results. We know that even if you analyse one study’s results in lots of different ways, you increase the likelihood of getting a positive finding purely by chance. So replicating these findings was key – Bem himself said so in his paper – and keeping track of the negative replications is vital too. For clinical trials, there is a system of registering your trial before you recruit participants, to reduce the risk of negative results being buried (it’s imperfect, as I’ve written, but it exists). Outside of trials, people tend not to bother, which puts whole fields at risk of spurious positive findings: Wiseman has set up a register for people to declare that they were attempting to replicate Bem’s work.

    But the second issue is how people find out about stuff. We exist in a blizzard of information, and stuff goes missing. Publishing a follow-up in the same venue that made an initial claim is one way of addressing this problem (and when the journal Science rejected the replication paper, even they said: “Your results would be better received and appreciated by the audience of the journal where the Daryl Bem research was published.”)

    The New York Times ran a long piece on the original precognition finding, New Scientist covered it twice, the Guardian joined in online, and the Telegraph wrote about it three times over. It’s hard to picture many of these outlets giving equal prominence to the new, negative findings now emerging, in the same way that newspapers often fail to return to a debunked scare. The most interesting problems around information today are about how to cope with the overload. For some eye-catching precognition research, this stuff probably doesn’t matter. What’s interesting is that the information architectures of medicine, academia and popular culture are all broken in the exact same way.