Twenty top predictions for life 100 years from now

Last week we asked readers for their predictions of life in 100 years time. Inspired by ten 100-year predictions made by American civil engineer John Elfreth Watkins in 1900, many of you wrote in with your vision of the world in 2112. From BBC News

1. Oceans will be extensively farmed and not just for fish (Jim 300)

IP: Likelihood 10/10. We will need to feed 10 billion people and nature can’t keep up with demand, so we will need much more ocean farming for fish. But algae farming is also on the way for renewable energy, and maybe even for growth of feedstock (raw materials) or resource extraction via GM seaweed or algae.

PT: Good chance. According to Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist at the Nasa Langley Research Center, saltwater algae that’s been genetically modified to absorb more nitrogen from the air than conventional algae could free up to 68% of the fresh water that is now tied up in conventional agriculture. This water could go to thirsty populations.

2. We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission (Dev 2)

IP: Likelihood 10/10. Transmission will be just as easy as other forms of brain augmentation. Picking up thoughts and relaying them to another brain will not be much harder than storing them on the net.

PT: Good chance. Synthetic telepathy sounds like something out of Hollywood but it is absolutely possible, so long as “communication” is understood to be electrical signals rather than words.

3. Thanks to DNA and robotic engineering, we will have created incredibly intelligent humans who are immortal (game_over)

IP: Likelihood 9/10. It is more likely that direct brain links using electronics will achieve this, but GM will help a lot by increasing longevity – keeping people alive until electronic immortality technology is freely available at reasonable cost.

PT: Good chance. The idea that breakthroughs in the field of genetics, biotechnology and artificial intelligence will expand human intelligence and allow our species to essentially defeat death is sometimes called the Singularity.

4. We will be able to control the weather (mariebee_)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. There is already some weather control technology for mediating tornadoes, making it rain and so on, and thanks to climate change concerns, a huge amount of knowledge is being gleaned on how weather works. We will probably have technology to be able to control weather when we need to. It won’t necessarily be cheap enough to use routinely and is more likely to be used to avoid severe damage in key areas.

PT: Good chance. We will certainly attempt to. A majority of scientists in the US support a federal programme to explore methods for engineering the Earth’s climate (otherwise known as geoengineering). These technologies aim to protect against the worst effects of manmade climate change.

5. Antarctica will be “open for business” (Dev 2)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. The area seems worth keeping as a natural wilderness so I am hesitant here, but I do expect that pressure will eventually mean that some large areas will be used commercially for resources. It should be possible to do so without damaging nature there if the technology is good enough, and this will probably be a condition of exploration rights.

PT: Pretty close. Before there is a rush to develop Antarctica we will most likely see a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over the region’s resources, or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Successful (if not necessarily sustainable) development of the Arctic portends well for the development of Antarctica.

6. One single worldwide currency (from Kennys_Heroes)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. This is very plausible. We are already seeing electronic currency that can be used anywhere, and this trend will continue. It is quite likely that there will be only a few regional currencies by the middle of the century and worldwide acceptance of a global electronic currency. This will gradually mean the others fall out of use and only one will left by the end of the century.

PT: Great try! The trend on this is actually more in the opposite direction. The internet is enabling new forms of bartering and value exchange. Local currencies are also now used by several hundred communities across the US and Europe. In other words, look for many more types of currency and exchange not fewer, in the coming decades.

7. We will all be wired to computers to make our brains work faster (Dev 2)

IP: Likelihood 10/10. We can expect this as soon as 2050 for many people. By 2075 most people in the developed world will use machine augmentation of some sort for their brains and, by the end of the century, pretty much everyone will. If someone else does this you will have to compete.

8. Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories (Alister Brown)

PT: Good chance. Right now, medical nanorobots exist only in theory and nanotechnology is mostly a materials science. But it’s a rapidly growing field. Nanorobots exist within the realm of possibility, but the question of when they will arrive is another matter

IP: Likelihood: 7/10.

9. We will have sussed nuclear fusion (Kennys_Heroes)

IP: Likelihood 10/10. This is likely by 2045-2050 and almost certain by 2100. It’s widely predicted that we will achieve this. What difference it makes will depend on what other energy technologies we have. We might also see a growth in shale gas or massive solar energy facilities. I don’t think that wind power will be around.

10. There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin (Bill Walker)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. This does look like a powerful trend, other languages don’t stand a lot of chance. Minor languages are dying at a huge rate already and the other major ones are mostly in areas where everyone educated speaks at least one of the other three. Time frame could be this century.

11. Eighty per cent of the world will have gay marriage (Paul)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. This seems inevitable to those of us in the West and is likely to mean different kinds of marriages being available to everyone. Gay people might pick different options from heterosexual people, but everyone will be allowed any option. Some regions will be highly resistant though because of strong religious influences, so it isn’t certain.

12. California will lead the break-up of the US (Dev 2)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. There are some indications already that California wants to split off and such pressures tend to build over time. It is hard to see this waiting until the end of the century. Maybe an East Coast cluster will want to break off too. Pressures come from the enormous differences in wealth generation capability, and people not wanting to fund others if they can avoid it.

13. Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy (Ahdok)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. First space elevators will certainly be around, and although “cheap” is a relative term, it will certainly be a lot cheaper than conventional space development. It will create a strong acceleration in space development and tourism will be one important area, but I doubt the costs will be low enough for most people to try.

14. Women will be routinely impregnated by artificial insemination rather than by a man (krozier 93)

PT: Pretty close. At the very least, more couples are choosing advanced fertility techniques over old-fashioned conception. Pre-implantation genetic diagnosis, in which an artificially inseminated embryo is carefully selected among other inseminated embryos for desirability, is becoming increasingly common in fertility clinics. Using this technique, it’s now possible to screen an embryo for about half of all congenital illnesses. Within the next decade, researchers will be able to screen for almost all congenital illnesses prior to embryo implantation.

IP: Likelihood 5/10.

15. There will be museums for almost every aspect of nature, as so much of the world’s natural habitat will have been destroyed (LowMaintenanceLifestyles)

PT: Pretty close. I cannot comment on the museums but the Earth is on the verge of a significant species extinction event. Protecting biodiversity in a time of increased resource consumption, overpopulation, and environmental degradation will require continued sacrifice on the part of local, often impoverished communities. Experts contend that incorporating local communities’ economic interests into conservation plans will be essential to species protection in the next century.

IP: Likelihood 2/10.

16. Deserts will become tropical forests (jim300)

IP: Likelihood 7/10. Desert greening is progressing so this is just about possible.

17. Marriage will be replaced by an annual contract (holierthanthou)

IP: Likelihood 6/10. I think we will certainly see some weaker forms of marriage that are designed to last a decade or two rather than a whole lifetime, but traditional marriage will still be an option. Increasing longevity is the key – if you marry at 20 and live to well over 100, that is far too long a commitment. People will want marriages that aren’t necessarily forever, but don’t bankrupt them when they end.

18. Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government (krozier93)

PT: Great try! However, I think that the trend is in the direction of more sovereign nations rather than fewer. In the coming years, corporations or wealthy private citizens will attempt to use earth-moving technologies to build their own semi-sovereign entities in international waters.

IP: Likelihood 2/10.

19. War by the West will be fought totally by remote control (LowMaintenanceLifestyles)

IP: Likelihood 5/10.

20. Britain will have had a revolution (holierthanthou)

IP: Likelihood 7/10. Well, possible, but not as likely as some other trends.

You can continue to contribute to the debate on Twitter using the hashtag #100yearpredictions. Ian Pearson is a future technology consultant and conference speaker. Patrick Tucker is spokesperson for the World Future Society and deputy editor of The Futurist magazine.

Tax Pledge May Scuttle a Deal on Deficit

Tax Pledge May Scuttle a Deal on Deficit

Weekly Standard

Three-quarters of Americans — including more than half of Republicans — say they believe that any deficit reduction plan should include tax increases, according to a recent New York Times/CBS poll. But Congressional Republicans are not so sure.

Republicans on the deficit-reduction supercommittee have offered a deal with 24 cents of every dollar in savings coming from tax increases, and the other 76 cents from spending cuts. That’s less from taxes than recommended by the leaders of last year’s blue ribbon panel on deficit reduction, which proposed 30 cents and 70 cents.

The latest proposal, even if agreed to by the committee, might have trouble surviving the full Republican caucus. Nearly every Republican in Congress has signed a pledge never to raise taxes, regardless of how much red ink is on the country’s balance sheet.

But previous Congressional budget deals relied significantly more on taxes than anything on the table now.

In the five fiscal grand bargains of the 1980s and early 1990s, tax increases accounted for an average of 61 cents of every dollar saved. In fact, in President Reagan’s 1982 and 1984 budget-trimming deals, more than 80 percent of deficit reductions came from tax increases. What’s more, the deals passed with majority support from both parties. Mr. Reagan may be remembered as an antitax hero, but he actually raised taxes 11 times over the course of his presidency, all in the name of fiscal responsibility.

Republicans used to rank deficit reduction ahead of curbing taxes, but now the reverse is true. What changed?

The conventional wisdom is that Republicans became fiercely antitax because President George H. W. Bush lost his 1992 re-election bid after breaking his “no new taxes” pledge.

But the evolution most likely began much earlier — in the 1970s, when a few conservative thinkers proposed a few exciting ideas that helped reconcile tax cuts with budget balancing.

In 1974, Arthur B. Laffer, a supply-side economist at the University of Chicago, doodled his now-famous Laffer curve, which showed that tax cuts could, counterintuitively, narrow deficits: lower tax rates encouraged people to earn more money, thereby creating more income that could be taxed, thereby raising total tax revenue. A related but somewhat contradictory supply-side theory was the starve the beast argument, which posited that tax rate cuts would lead to lower total tax revenue, forcing spending cuts and then balancing the budget from both sides of the ledger.

And then there was the Two Santa Claus Theory, advocated by Jude Wanniski, a Wall Street Journal editorial writer. In an influential 1976 essay, he argued that tax cuts were not only good for the economy, but politically endearing.

Republicans, he argued, should stop playing Scrooge to the Democrats’ generous Santa Claus. Instead, he said the party could offer its own Christmas gift to voters: tax cuts.

Those messages filtered through, and energized younger Republicans over the next decade. But Congress still had a number of the old guard, more moderate and budget-hawkish Republicans, like Bob Dole and Howard Baker, who encouraged compromise on fiscal issues.

“There was a different makeup of the United States Congress then than there is now,” said G. William Hoagland, vice president for federal affairs at Cigna Insurance who has worked for the Congressional Budget Office and for Senator Bill Frist, the former Republican Senate majority leader. “There was much more willingness to reach across the aisle in a bipartisan manner for the good of the country as opposed to the next election.”

Slowly, the Republican old guard was replaced. And with each subsequent budget bargain, more and more Republicans jumped from the antideficit bandwagon to the antitax one, egged on by conservative groups.

Most prominent was Americans for Tax Reform, an organization founded by Grover Norquist. In 1986, the new group began asking politicians to sign a pledge against tax increases. That first year, 100 representatives and 20 senators signed on. By 1994, Mr. Norquist says, the number of signatories had risen to 200 representatives and about 50 senators; today 238 representatives and 41 senators have signed the pledge.

Not coincidentally, President Reagan’s fiscal consolidation deal, from a 1987 budget summit meeting, passed without a majority of Republican votes.

Even the budget hawks were coming around. In the next presidential election, George H. W. Bush, who had once derided supply-side theory as “voodoo economics,” told voters to “read my lips: no new taxes.” It was a winning message.

Just two years later, though, he was ruffled by the mounting federal debt and urged Congress to pass a deficit reduction bill that included tax increases.

Initially, conservative Republicans killed the bill, led by Newt Gingrich, a rising star and antitax leader. After a three-week government shutdown, the 1990 Budget Enforcement Act finally passed. But it, too, passed without a majority of Republicans voting for it.

Voters kicked Mr. Bush out of office in the next election, but political scientists debate whether his 1990 tax increase was to blame. President Reagan, after all, somehow remained phenomenally popular despite raising taxes nearly a dozen times.

The first President Bush also had to contend with a weak economy and public anger for a broken promise, regardless of the promise’s content, said Sarah A. Binder, a political scientist at George Washington University.

Either way, Republicans saw Mr. Bush’s loss as a rallying cry.

“In the 1980s, the opposition to the Soviet Union and communism was the core of the Republican brand, helping unify Republicans from all sorts of other different beliefs,” said Eric M. Patashnik, a public policy professor at the University of Virginia. “After the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union, the opposition to tax increases became the glue that held together the Republican Party.”

Accordingly, every single Republican voted against President Clinton’s tax-heavy deficit reduction plan in 1993. The Republican platform in the next federal election was explicitly antitax, and successfully ended the Democrats’ 40-year Congressional majority. Some experts believe that historical political changeover also hardened Republicans against tax increases.

“Through the 1950s to the 1980s, the Democrats were seen as the ‘natural’ majority party in Congress, and the question of the next election was less on people’s minds,” said Frances E. Lee, a professor of politics and government at the University of Maryland. “It was easier to contemplate political risks when the stakes were lower.” After the majority appeared more volatile, she said, “suddenly it became much harder to do a deal that imposes painful tax hikes.”

In 1997, Congress passed a two-part deficit reduction package containing nothing but spending cuts. In fact, it could be said it cut more than spending, since the new laws cut taxes, too.

Over the last 30 years, Americans have made the opposite transition. In a 1982 NBC News/Associated Press poll, 77 percent said deficits should be reduced by spending cuts alone, about the same share that now want some tax increases.

Experts don’t know how to explain this, but say it could reflect today’s lower tax rates: in 1982 the top rate was 50 percent and now it is 35 percent.

“Sometimes it’s not the attitudes that change,” said Morris P. Fiorina, a Stanford political science professor and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. “It’s the facts.”

Naveen Jain – Rethinking Sustainable Philanthropy / Lifeboat

There are as many ways to help another human being as there are people in need of help. For some, the urgent need is as basic as food and water. For others, it is an opportunity to develop a talent, realize an idea, and reach one’s full potential. Helping people get what they need most in life is at the heart of successful philanthropy.

However, you can’t simply give money away without thinking deeply about how and where the money will go and why you’re doing the giving. You need to approach philanthropy in a strategic and systematic way—just as an entrepreneur approaches a new venture. That’s the only way to make a self-sustaining difference in the world. That being said, here are five key ways to achieve sustainable success with your philanthropic efforts.

1. Open a Door
Helping people boost themselves out of poverty is the best way to make a lasting positive difference in a person’s life. A new skill, an introduction, an education—these gifts open doors that would otherwise remain closed. A promising beneficiary will walk through that door and create opportunities for others.

2. Define Your Passion
To have enduring impact, your philanthropic efforts should reflect the causes you are most passionate about. For me, one of those things is education: A good education is the most valuable thing you can give another person. My own philanthropic efforts have always included an educational element, whether it’s expanding opportunities to educate a promising mind or extending the brain’s ability to learn. If you follow your own passions, you’ll increase exponentially your chances of sustainable success.

3. Seek Out Inspiration
To truly change the world, you need to inspire—and be inspired by—others. I’ve found many people who share my interest in neuroscience—brilliant people like V.S. Ramachandran, and David Eagleman. They inspire me to learn more, do more, and raise my standards higher. That, in turn, inspires those I work with to raise their game. Having someone you can talk to and work with makes the job of changing the world less daunting, builds deep trust, and sparks vital creativity.

4. Measure Your Impact
You’re more likely to achieve success if you can define ahead of time what form that success will take and track progress toward your goal. Set milestones along the way so you can adjust your approach and add more resources, if necessary. Simple metrics can be a powerful tool to engage people’s competitive spirit and harness it for a good cause.

This approach is what the X Prize Foundation has done in the nonprofit science field, from genomics to space exploration—it defines the goal, sets the parameters, and measures the results. And at the end there is a payoff: a cash prize for the innovators and a new body of human knowledge for the rest of us who are the true winners.

5. Think Like an Entrepreneur
None of the previous points will create a sustainable philanthropic effort unless you are constantly looking for newer and better ways to make a meaningful difference. That means looking at the world and living life as a philanthropic entrepreneur.

For example, Kairos Society, (disclosure: my son, Ankur Jain, founded the organization and I’m a supporter), is based on the belief that the key to improving our world lies in giving the next generation of leaders different opportunities to develop globally impactful innovations. Kairos brings promising young people together with successful business and political leaders from around the world to create sustainable solutions to the world’s most pressing problems.

Continuing to pass down enthusiasm for philanthropy provides chances and opportunities to the people who need it most. Growing up in India, I knew all I needed to change the world was one good opportunity, and I prepared myself for it. When that opportunity came—in the form of the chance to earn an engineering degree—I was ready. With sustainable philanthropy, we can make sure that these chances for success can be grasped by the next generation. This is philanthropy that is truly sustainable.

Follow Naveen Jain at Twitter

http://lifeboat.com/blog/2011/07/naveen-jain-rethinking-sustainable-philanthropy

Is Biomass Really Renewable? – Eco Matters – State of the Planet

Biomass, a renewable energy source derived from organic matter such as wood, crop waste, or garbage, makes up 50% of all U.S. renewable energy. Ninety percent of all existing biomass power plants use wood residue and there are currently 115 power plants in development that will burn biomass to generate electricity. But just how renewable is biomass energy?

The Seattle Steam Company uses woody waste. Photo credit: Joe Mabel

There are several ways to produce energy from biomass including burning biomass to generate heat or run steam turbines that produce electricity, turning feedstocks into liquid biofuels, and harvesting gas from landfills or anaerobic digesters. Biomass can consist of sawdust from lumbermills, logging byproducts, construction or organic municipal waste, energy crops (switchgrass), crop residue, and even chicken litter, but most biomass comes from bark, sawdust and woody residue from the logging and paper industries.  Since the rapid expansion of biomass energy today relies largely on wood from forests, we’ll focus here on energy produced by the combustion of biomass from forest wood and woody residue.

The U.S. Forest Service states that utilizing woody biomass is an “opportunity we cannot afford to waste.”  The Forest Service says thinning out small-diameter or dead trees from overcrowded forests, and harvesting the byproducts of forest management such as limbs, treetops, needles, leaves, etc. improves the health of the trees that remain in the forest and helps reduce the incidence of wildfires. Biomass creates new jobs and supports local economies by providing new markets for farmers and forest owners. It can also lessen our dependence on fossil fuels, and under certain conditions, can reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Biomass is considered a renewable energy source because the carbon in biomass is regarded as part of the natural carbon cycle: trees take in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and convert it into biomass and when they die, it is released back into the atmosphere. Whether trees are burned or whether they decompose naturally, they release the same amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The idea is that if trees harvested as biomass are replanted as fast as the wood is burned, new trees take up the carbon produced by the combustion, the carbon cycle theoretically remains in balance, and no extra carbon is added to the atmospheric balance sheet—so biomass is considered “carbon neutral.”  Since nothing offsets the CO2 that fossil fuel burning produces, replacing fossil fuels with biomass supposedly results in reduced carbon emissions.

In fact, the reality is a lot more complicated. Whether or not biomass is truly carbon neutral depends on what type of biomass is used, the combustion technology, which fossil fuel is being replaced, and what forest management techniques are employed where the biomass is harvested. The combustion of both fossil fuels and biomass produce carbon dioxide. When short-term biomass is burned, such as annual crops, the amount of carbon generated can be taken up quickly by the growing of new plants. But when the biomass comes from wood and trees, not only can the regrowing and thus the recapture of carbon take years or decades, but also, the carbon equation must take into consideration carbon the trees would have naturally stored if left untouched. A group of prominent scientists wrote to Congress in May 2010 explaining that the notion that all biomass results in a 100% reduction of carbon emissions is wrong. Biomass can reduce carbon dioxide if fast growing crops are grown on otherwise unproductive land; in this case, the regrowth of the plants offsets the carbon produced by the combustion of the crops. But cutting or clearing forests for energy, either to burn trees or to plant energy crops, releases carbon into the atmosphere that would have been sequestered if the trees had remained untouched, in addition to producing carbon in the combustion process, resulting in a net increase of CO2.

Nevertheless, all types of biomass energy are currently considered renewable and carbon neutral and thus qualify for many tax credits, subsidies, and incentives. These include Renewable Energy Credits wherein every megawatt-hour of electricity generated by biomass earns a credit that can be sold to utilities required to purchase a certain amount of renewable energy. The Energy Production Tax Credit pays biomass energy producers 1.1 cent per kilowatt-hour for 5 years. The Investment Tax Credit created under the stimulus reimburses 30% of biomass plant development if it is started by 2011.  And biomass is exempt from carbon allowances and eligible for subsidies from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Photo credit: rebuildingdemocracy

As a result of these incentives, the biomass industry is expanding rapidly. Most of the new biomass electricity generating plants being developed will burn wood. And since there isn’t enough logging residue to meet the increased demand for biomass, some fear that more standing trees will be chopped and more forests clear-cut. The new biomass plants will produce 38 MW of electricity on average, but over 30 plants are being built in the 50 to 110 MW range.  According to the Partnership for Policy Integrity (PFPI), a 50-MW plant burns 2,550 lb. of green wood each minute. PFPI calculates that at this rate the 115 new biomass plants being built over the next 3 years will burn around 55 million tons of wood—that’s equivalent to 650,000 clear-cut acres of forest per year by 2014.  This staggering figure doesn’t include additional wood that will be needed for co-firing in coal plants where wood is burned with coal to meet state renewable energy mandates (resulting in additional carbon emissions), pellet production, and liquid biofuels. While admittedly most forests will not actually be clear-cut for biomass energy, the numbers make clear the amount of pressure that will be brought to bear on our forests.

How will this increase in biomass burning impact climate change, our health, and the environment? Regardless of their size, biomass-burning power plants actually produce more global warming CO2 than fossil fuel plants: 150% the CO2 of coal, and 300 to 400% the CO2 of natural gas, per unit of energy produced. In addition, burning wood biomass emits as much if not more air pollution than burning fossil fuels (including coal), i.e. particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, lead, mercury, and other hazardous air pollutants, which can cause cancer or reproductive effects. The air pollution from biomass facilities, which the American Heart Association and the American Lung Association have called a danger to public health, produces respiratory illnesses, heart disease, cancer, and developmental delays in children.

Heavy machinery compacts soil. Photo credit: David Stanley

Harvesting limbs, leaves and plant parts, which normally recycle nutrients back into the soil as they decay, may diminish soil fertility and hasten erosion. Heavy machinery used for Iogging compacts soil and increases runoff, which can affect water quality. Removing woody residue and plant material from the forest will also impact wildlife habitats on the forest floor. In addition, the effort to produce large amounts of biomass quickly may encourage the planting of short rotation woody crops, some of which are invasive species (giant reed, castor oil bush); this could cause serious environmental damage to native ecosystems.

The Natural Resources Defense Council warns against using our forests for fuel: “You can plant new trees, but forests aren’t ‘renewable’. Natural forests, with their complex ecosystems, cannot be regrown like a crop of beans or lettuce… tree plantations will never provide the clean water, storm buffers, wildlife habitat, and other ecosystem services that natural forests do.”

Managed tree plantation. Photo credit: John A. Kelley

In March, 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) gave biomass-burning facilities a 3-year exemption from having to obtain permits and control CO2 emissions as the agency studies the environmental impacts of biomass. Just recently, several environmental groups filed suit against the EPA rule, saying that the 3-year pass will cause immediate environmental harm. PFPI contends that the exemption will also result in a rush to build biomass plants, which could then be grandfathered in and remain exempt from carbon accounting when guidelines are later established.

The woody biomass industry needs to be regulated so that increased harvesting will not damage our forests and the ecosystem services they provide. The Union of Concerned Scientists advocates a balanced approach that includes creating new Best Management Practices for forest management designed to address increased biomass harvesting levels, third-party certifications to verify that biomass harvests remain sustainable, and forest management plans written by professionally accredited foresters. In addition, where soils are affected, nutrients need to be replenished; some woody material (30%) should be left in forests to provide habitat for wildlife and protect biodiversity; and old growth forests and key habitats must be protected.

Most importantly, state, federal, and international regulations need to clearly distinguish between the types of biomass energy that are beneficial and those that are detrimental. Treating all biomass, regardless of its source, as carbon neutral, could lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions at home and around the world. In their letter to Congress, the scientists said, the “globally improper accounting of bioenergy could lead to large-scale clearing of the world’s forests… any legal measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must include a system to differentiate emissions from bioenergy based on the source of the biomass.”

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2011/08/18/is-biomass-really-renewable/

The Army’s Bold Plan to Turn Soldiers Into Telepaths | Top Stories | DISCOVER Magazine

by Adam Piore.

The U.S. Army wants to allow soldiers to communicate just by thinking. 
The new science of synthetic telepathy could soon make that happen.

illustration by Sam Kennedy

On a cold, blustery afternoon the week before Halloween, an assortment of spiritual mediums, animal communicators, and astrologists have set up tables in the concourse beneath the Empire State Plaza in Albany, New York. The cavernous hall of shops that 
connects the buildings in this 98-acre complex is a popular venue for autumnal events: Oktoberfest, the Maple Harvest Festival, and today’s “Mystic Fair.”

Traffic is heavy as bureaucrats with ID badges dangling from their necks stroll by during their lunch breaks. Next to the Albany Paranormal Research Society table, a middle-aged woman is solemnly explaining the workings of an electromagnetic sensor that can, she asserts, detect the presence of ghosts. Nearby, a “clairvoyant” ushers a government worker in a suit into her canvas tent. A line has formed at the table of a popular tarot card reader.

Amid all the bustle and transparent hustles, few of the dabblers at the Mystic Fair are aware that there is a genuine mind reader in the building, sitting in an office several floors below the concourse. This mind reader is not able to pluck a childhood memory or the name of a loved one out of your head, at least not yet. But give him time. He is applying hard science to an aspiration that was once relegated to clairvoyants, and unlike his predecessors, he can point to some hard results.

The mind reader is Gerwin Schalk, a 39-year-old biomedical scientist and a leading expert on brain-computer interfaces at the New York State Department of Health’s Wads­worth Center at Albany Medical College. The 
Austrian-born Schalk, along with a handful of other researchers, is part of a $6.3 million U.S. Army project to establish the basic science required to build a thought helmet—a device that can detect and transmit the unspoken speech of soldiers, allowing them to communicate with one another silently.

As improbable as it sounds, synthetic telepathy, as the technology is called, is getting closer to battlefield reality. Within a decade Special Forces could creep into the caves of Tora Bora to snatch Al Qaeda operatives, communicating and coordinating without hand signals or whispered words. Or a platoon of infantrymen could telepathically call in a helicopter to whisk away their wounded in the midst of a deafening firefight, where intelligible speech would be impossible above the din of explosions.

For a look at the early stages of the technology, I pay a visit to a different sort of cave, Schalk’s bunkerlike office. Finding it is a workout. I hop in an elevator within shouting distance of the paranormal hubbub, then pass through a long, linoleum-floored hallway guarded by a pair of stern-faced sentries, and finally descend a cement stairwell to a subterranean warren of laboratories and offices.

Schalk is sitting in front of an oversize computer screen, surrounded by empty metal bookshelves and white cinder-block walls, bare except for a single photograph of his young family and a poster of the human brain. The fluorescent lighting flickers as he hunches over a desk to click on a computer file. A volunteer from one of his recent mind-reading experiments appears in a video facing a screen of her own. She is concentrating, Schalk explains, silently thinking of one of two vowel sounds, aah or ooh.

The volunteer is clearly no ordinary research subject. She is draped in a hospital gown and propped up in a motorized bed, her head swathed in a plasterlike mold of bandages secured under the chin. Jumbles of wires protrude from an opening at the top of her skull, snaking down to her left shoulder in stringy black tangles. Those wires are connected to 64 electrodes that a neurosurgeon has placed directly on the surface of her naked cortex after surgically removing the top of her skull. “This woman has epilepsy and probably has seizures several times a week,” Schalk says, revealing a slight Germanic accent.

The main goal of this technique, known as electrocorticography, or ECOG, is to identify the exact area of the brain responsible for her seizures, so surgeons can attempt to remove the damaged areas without affecting healthy ones. But there is a huge added benefit: The seizure patients who volunteer for Schalk’s experiments prior to surgery have allowed him and his collaborator, neuro­surgeon Eric C. Leuthardt of Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, to collect what they claim are among the most detailed pictures ever recorded of what happens in the brain when we imagine speaking words aloud.

Special Forces could creep into the caves of Tora Bora to snatch Al Qaeda operatives, 
communicating without hand signals or whispered words.

Those pictures are a central part of the project funded by the Army’s multi-university research grant and the latest twist on science’s long-held ambition to read what goes on inside the mind. Researchers have been experimenting with ways to understand and harness signals in the areas of the brain that control muscle movement since the early 2000s, and they have developed methods to detect imagined muscle movement, vocalizations, and even the speed with which a subject wants to move a limb.

At Duke University Medical Center in North Carolina, researchers have surgically implanted electrodes in the brains of monkeys and trained them to move robotic arms at MIT, hundreds of miles away, just by thinking. At Brown University, scientists are working on a similar implant they hope will allow paralyzed human subjects to control artificial limbs. And workers at Neural Signals Inc., outside Atlanta, have been able to extract vowels from the motor cortex of a paralyzed patient who lost the ability to talk by sinking electrodes into the area of his brain that controls his vocal cords.

+++

A machine maps electrical brain activity by
measuring magnetic fields around a volunteer’s head.

Courtesy of David Poeppel

But the Army’s thought-helmet project is the first large-scale effort to “really attack” the much broader challenge of synthetic telepathy, Schalk says. The Army wants practical applications for healthy people, “and we are making progress,” he adds.

Schalk is now attempting to make silent speech a reality by using sensors and computers to explore the regions of the brain responsible for storing and processing thoughts. The goal is to build a helmet embedded with brain-scanning technologies that can target specific brain waves, translate them into words, and transmit those words wirelessly to a radio speaker or an earpiece worn by other soldiers.

As Schalk explains his vast ambitions, I’m mesmerized by the eerie video of the bandaged patient on the computer screen. White bars cover her eyes to preserve her anonymity. She is lying stock-still, giving the impression that she might be asleep or comatose, but she is very much engaged. Schalk points with his pen at a large rectangular field on the side of the screen depicting a region of her brain abuzz with electrical activity. Hundreds of yellow and white brain waves dance across a black backdrop, each representing the oscillating electrical pulses picked up by one of the 64 electrodes attached to her cortex as clusters of brain cells fire.

Somewhere in those squiggles lie patterns that Schalk is training his computer to recognize and decode. “To make sense of this is very difficult,” he says. “For each second there are 1,200 variables from each electrode location. It’s a lot of numbers.”

Schalk gestures again toward the video. Above the volunteer’s head is a black bar that extends right or left depending on the computer’s ability to guess which vowel the volunteer has been instructed to imagine: right for “aah,” left for “ooh.” The volunteer imagines “ooh,” and I watch the black bar inch to the left. The volunteer thinks “aah,” and sure enough, the bar extends right, proof that the computer’s analysis of those hundreds of squiggling lines in the black rectangle is correct. In fact, the computer gets it right “close to 100 percent of the time,” Schalk says.

He admits that he is a long way from decoding full, complex imagined sentences with multiple words and meaning. But even extracting two simple vowels from deep within the brain is a big advance. Schalk has no doubt about where his work is leading. “This is the first step toward mind reading,” he tells me.

“Show us the evidence that 
this could really work—that you are not just hallucinating it,” 
the Army asked Schmeisser.

The motivating force behind the thought helmet project is a retired Army colonel with a Ph.D. in the physiology of vision and advanced belts in karate, judo, aikido, and Japanese sword fighting. Elmar Schmeis­ser, a lanky, bespectacled scientist with a receding hairline and a neck the width of a small tree, joined the Army Research Office as a program manager in 2002. He had spent his 30-year career up to that point working in academia and at various military research facilities, exhaustively investigating eyewear to protect soldiers against laser exposure, among other technologies.

Schmeisser had been fascinated by the concept of a thought helmet ever since he read about it in E. E. “Doc” Smith’s 1946 science fiction classic, Skylark of Space, back in the eighth grade. But it was not until 2006, while Schmeisser was attending a conference on advanced prosthetics in Irvine, California, that it really hit him: Science had finally caught up to his boyhood vision. He was listening to a young researcher expound on the virtues of extracting signals from the surface of the brain. The young researcher was Gerwin Schalk.

Schalk’s lecture was causing a stir. Many neuroscientists had long believed that the only way to extract data from the brain specific enough to control an external device was to penetrate the cortex and sink electrodes into the gray matter, where the electrodes could record the firing of individual neurons. By claiming that he could pry information from the brain without drilling deep inside it—information that could allow a subject to move a computer cursor, play computer games, and even move a prosthetic limb—Schalk was taking on “a very strong existing dogma in the field that the only way to know about how the brain works is by recording individual neurons,” Schmeisser vividly recalls of that day.

Many of those present dismissed Schalk’s findings as blasphemy and stood up to attack it. But for Schmeisser it was a magical moment. If he could take Schalk’s idea one step further and find a way to extract verbal thoughts from the brain without surgery, the technology could dramatically benefit not only disabled people but the healthy as well. “Everything,” he says,” all of a sudden became possible.”

The next year, Schmeisser marched into a large conference room at Army Research Office headquarters in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, to pitch a research project to investigate synthetic telepathy for soldiers. He took his place at a podium facing a large, U-shaped table fronting rows of chairs, where a committee of some 30 senior scientists and colleagues—division chiefs, directorate heads, mathematicians, particle physicists, chemists, computer scientists, and Pentagon brass in civilian dress—waited for him to begin.

Schmeisser had 10 minutes and six Power­Point slides to address four major questions: Where was the field at the moment? How might his idea prove important? What would the Army get out of it? And was there reason to believe that it was doable?

The first three questions were simple. It was that last one that tripped him up. “Does this really work?” Schmeisser remembers the committee asking him. “Show us the evidence that this could really work—that you are not just hallucinating it.”

The committee rejected Schmeisser’s proposal but authorized him to collect more data over the following year to bolster his case. For assistance he turned to Schalk, the man who had gotten him thinking about a thought helmet in the first place.

Schalk and Leuthardt had been conducting mind-reading experiments for several years, exploring their patients’ ability to play video games, move cursors, and type by means of brain waves picked up via a scanner. The two men were eager to push their research further and expand into areas of the brain thought to be associated with language, so when Schmeisser offered them 
a $450,000 grant to prove the feasibility of a thought helmet, they seized the opportunity.

Schalk and Leuthardt quickly recruited 12 epilepsy patients as volunteers for their first set of experiments. As I had seen in the video in Schalk’s office, each patient had the top of his skull removed and electrodes affixed to the surface of the cortex. The researchers then set up a computer screen and speakers in front of the patients’ beds.

+++

The patients were presented with 36 words that had a relatively simple consonant-vowel-consonant structure, such as bet, bat, beat, and boot. They were asked to say the words out loud and then to simply imagine saying them. Those instructions were conveyed visually (written on a computer screen) with no audio, and again vocally with no video. The electrodes provided a precise map of the resulting neural activity.

Schalk was intrigued by the results. As one might expect, when the subjects vocalized a word, the data indicated activity in the areas of the motor cortex associated with the muscles that produce speech. The auditory cortex and an area in its vicinity long believed to be associated with speech, called Wernicke’s area, were also active.

When the subjects imagined words, the motor cortex went silent while the auditory cortex and Wernicke’s area remained active. Although it was unclear why those areas were active, what they were doing, and what it meant, the raw results were an important start. The next step was obvious: Reach inside the brain and try to pluck out enough data to determine, at least roughly, what the subjects were thinking.

Schmeisser presented Schalk’s data to the Army committee the following year and asked it to fund a formal project to develop a real mind-reading helmet. As he conceived it, the helmet would function as a wearable interface between mind and machine. When activated, sensors inside would scan the thousands of brain waves oscillating in a soldier’s head; a microprocessor would apply pattern recognition software to decode those waves and translate them into specific sentences or words, and a radio would transmit the message. Schmeisser also proposed adding a second capability to the helmet to detect the direction in which a soldier was focusing his attention. The function could be used to steer thoughts to a specific comrade or squad, just by looking in their direction.

The words or sentences would reach a receiver that would then “speak” the words into a comrade’s earpiece or be played from a speaker, perhaps at a distant command post. The possibilities were easy to imagine:

“Look out! Enemy on the right!”

“We need a medical evacuation now!”

“The enemy is standing on the ridge. Fire!”

Any of those phrases could be life-saving.

This time the committee signed off.

Grant applications started piling up in Schmeisser’s office. To maximize the chance of success, he decided to split the Army funding between two university teams that were taking complementary approaches to the telepathy problem.

The first team, directed by Schalk, was pursuing the more invasive ECOG approach, attaching electrodes beneath the skull. The second group, led by Mike D’Zmura, a cognitive scientist at the University of California, Irvine, planned to use electroencephalography (EEG), a noninvasive brain-scanning technique that was far better suited for an actual thought helmet. Like ECOG, EEG relies on brain signals picked up by an array of electrodes that are sensitive to the subtle voltage oscillations caused by the firing of groups of neurons. Unlike ECOG, EEG requires no surgery; the electrodes attach painlessly to the scalp.

For Schmeisser, this practicality was critical. He ultimately wanted answers to the big neuroscience questions that would allow researchers to capture complicated thoughts and ideas, yet he also knew that demonstrating even a rudimentary thought helmet capable of discerning simple commands would be a valuable achievement. After all, soldiers often use formulaic and reduced vocabulary to communicate. Calling in a helicopter for a medical evacuation, for instance, requires only a handful of specific words.

“We could start there,” Schmeisser says. “We could start below that.” He noted, for instance, that it does not require a terribly complicated message to call for an air strike or a missile launch: “That would be a very nice operational capability.”

The relative ease with which EEG can be applied comes at a price, however. The exact location of neural activity is far more difficult to discern via EEG than with many other, more invasive methods because the skull, scalp, and cerebral fluid surrounding the brain scatter its electric signals before they reach the electrodes. That blurring also makes the signals harder to detect at all. The EEG data can be so messy, in fact, that some of the researchers who signed on to the project harbored private doubts about whether it could really be used to extract the signals associated with unspoken thoughts.

In the initial months of the project, back in 2008, one of D’Zmura’s key collaborators, renowned neuroscientist David Poeppel, sat in his office on the second floor of the New York University psychology building and realized he was unsure even where to begin. With his research partner Greg Hickok, an expert on the neuroscience of language, he had developed a detailed model of audible speech systems, parts of which were widely cited in textbooks. But there was nothing in that model to suggest how to measure something imagined.

For more than 100 years, Poeppel reflected, speech experimentation had followed a simple plan: Ask a subject to listen to a specific word or phrase, measure the subject’s response to that word (for instance, how long it takes him to repeat it aloud), and then demonstrate how that response is connected to activity in the brain. Trying to measure imagined speech was much more complicated; a random thought could throw off the whole experiment. In fact, it was still unclear where in the brain researchers should even look for the relevant signals.

Solving this problem would call for a new experimental method, Poeppel realized. He and a postdoctoral student, Xing Tian, decided to take advantage of a powerful imaging technique called magnetoencephalography, or MEG, to do their reconnaissance work. MEG can provide roughly the same level of spatial detail as ECOG but without the need to remove part of a subject’s 
skull, and it is far more accurate than EEG.

Poeppel and Tian would guide subjects into a three-ton, beige-paneled room constructed of a special alloy and copper to shield against passing electromagnetic fields. At the center of the room sat a one-ton, six-foot-tall machine resembling a huge hair dryer that contained scanners capable of recording the minute magnetic fields produced by the firing of neurons. After guiding subjects into the device, the researchers would ask them to imagine speaking words like athlete, musician, and lunch. Next they asked them to imagine hearing the words.

When Poeppel sat down to analyze the results, he noticed something unusual. As a subject imagined hearing words, his auditory cortex lit up the screen in a characteristic pattern of reds and greens. That part was no surprise; previous studies had linked the auditory cortex to imagined sounds. However, when a subject was asked to imagine speaking a word rather than hearing it, the auditory cortex flashed an almost identical red and green pattern.

Poeppel was initially stumped by the results. “That is really bizarre,” he recalls thinking. “Why should there be an auditory pattern when the subjects didn’t speak and no one around them spoke?” Over time he arrived at an explanation. Scientists had long been aware of an error-correction mechanism in the brain associated with motor commands. When the brain sends a command to the motor cortex to, for instance, reach out and grab a cup of water, it also creates an internal impression, known as an efference copy, of what the resulting movement will look and feel like. That way, the brain can check the muscle output against the intended action and make any necessary corrections.

Poeppel believed he was looking at an efference copy of speech in the auditory cortex. “When you plan to speak, you activate the hearing part of your brain before you say the word,” he explains. “Your brain is predicting what it will sound like.”

+++

The potential significance of this finding was not lost on Poeppel. If the brain held on to a copy of what an imagined thought would sound like if vocalized, it might be possible to capture that neurological record and translate it into intelligible words. As happens so often in this field of research, though, each discovery brought with it a wave of new challenges. Building a thought helmet would require not only identifying that efference copy but also finding a way to isolate it from a mass of brain waves.

D’Zmura and his team at UC Irvine have spent the past two years taking baby steps in that direction by teaching pattern recognition programs to search for and recognize specific phrases and words. The sheer size of a MEG machine would obviously be impractical in a military setting, so the team is testing its techniques using lightweight EEG caps that could eventually be built into a practical thought helmet.

The caps are comfortable enough that Tom Lappas, a graduate student working with D’Zmura, often volunteers to be a research subject. During one experiment last November, Lappas sat in front of a computer wearing flip-flops, shorts, and a latex EEG cap with 128 gel-soaked electrodes attached to it. Lappas’s face was a mask of determined focus as he stared silently at a screen while military commands blared out of a nearby speaker.

“Ready Baron go to red now,” a recorded voice intoned, then paused. “Ready Eagle go to red now…Ready Tiger go to green now…” As Lappas concentrated, a computer recorded hundreds of squiggly lines representing Lappas’s brain activity as it was picked up from the surface of his scalp. Somewhere in that mass of data, Lappas hoped, were patterns unique enough to distinguish the sentences from one another.

With so much information, the problem would not be finding similarities but rather filtering out the similarities that were irrelevant. Something as simple as the blink of an eye creates a tremendous number of squiggles and lines that might throw off the recognition program. To make matters more challenging, Lappas decided at this early stage in the experiment to search for patterns not only in the auditory cortex but in other areas of the brain as well.

That expanded search added to the data his computer had to crunch through. In the end, the software was able to identify the sentence a test subject was imagining speaking only about 45 percent of the time. The result was hardly up to military standards; an error rate of 55 percent would be disastrous on the battlefield.

Schmeisser is not distressed by that high error rate. He is confident that synthetic telepathy can and will rapidly improve to the point where it will be useful in combat. “When we first started this, we didn’t know if it could be done,” he says. “That we have gotten this far is wonderful.” Poeppel agrees. “The fact that they could find anything just blows me away, frankly,” he says.

Schmeisser notes that D’Zmura has already shown that test subjects can type in Morse code by thinking of specific vowels 
in dots and dashes. Although this exercise is not actual language, subjects have achieved an accuracy of close to 100 percent.

The next steps in getting a thought helmet to work with actual language will be improving the accuracy of the pattern-recognition programs used by Schalk’s and D’Zmura’s teams and then adding, little by little, to the library of words that these programs can discern. “Whether we can get to fully free-flowing, civilian-type speech, I don’t know. It would be nice. We’re pushing the limits of what we can get, opening the vocabulary as much as we can,” Schmeisser says.

For some concerned citizens, this research is pushing too far. Among the more paranoid set, the mere fact that the military is trying to create a thought helmet is proof of a conspiracy to subject the masses to mind control. More grounded critics consider the project ethically questionable. Since the Army’s thought helmet project became publicly known, Schmeis­ser has been deluged with Freedom of Information Act requests from individuals and organizations concerned about privacy issues. Those requests for documentation have required countless hours and continue 
to this day.

Schalk, for his part, has resolved to keep a low profile. From his experience working with more invasive techniques, he had seen his fair share of controversy in the field, and he anticipated that this project might attract close scrutiny. “All you need to do is say, ‘The U.S. Army funds studies to implant people for mind reading,’ ” he says. “That’s all it takes, and then you’re going to have to do damage control.”

D’Zmura and the rest of his team, perhaps to their regret, granted interviews about their preliminary research after it was announced in a UC Irvine press release. The negative reaction was immediate. Bizarre e-mail messages began appearing in D’Zmura’s in-box from individuals ranting against the government or expressing concern that the authorities were already monitoring their thoughts. One afternoon, a woman appeared outside D’Zmura’s office complaining of voices in her head and asking for assistance to remove them.

Should synthetic telepathy make significant progress, the worried voices will surely grow louder. “Once we cross these barriers, we are doing something that has never before been done in human history, which is to get information directly from the brain,” says Emory University bioethicist Paul Root Wolpe, a leading voice in the field of neuroethics. “I don’t have a problem with sticking this helmet on the head of a pilot to allow him to send commands on a plane. The problem comes when you try to get detailed information about what someone is either thinking or saying nonverbally. That’s something else altogether. The skull should remain a realm of absolute privacy. If the right to privacy means anything, it means the right to the contents of my thoughts.”

Schmeisser says he has been reflecting on this kind of concern “from the beginning.” He dismisses the most extreme type of worry out of hand. “The very nature of the technology and of the human brain,” he maintains, “would prevent any Big Brother type of use.” Even the most sophisticated existing speech-recognition programs can obtain only 95 percent accuracy, and that is after being calibrated and trained by a user to compensate for accent, intonation, and phrasing. Brain waves are “much harder” to get right, Schmeisser notes, because every brain is anatomically different and uniquely shaped by experience.

Merely calibrating a program to recognize a simple sentence from brain waves would take hours. “If your thoughts wander for just an instant, the computer is completely lost,” Schmeisser says. “So the method is completely ethical. There is no way to coerce users into training the machine if they don’t want to. Any attempt to apply coercion will result in more brain wave disorganization, from stress if nothing else, and produce even worse computer performance.” Despite the easy analogies, synthetic telepathy bears little resemblance to mystical notions of mind reading and mind control. The bottom line, Schmeisser insists, “is that I see no risks whatsoever. Only benefits.”

Nor does he feel any unease that his funding comes from a military agency eager to put synthetic telepathy to use on the battlefield. The way he sees it, the potential payoff is simply too great.

“This project is attempting to make the scientific breakthrough that will have application for many things,” Schmeisser says. “If we can get at the black box we call the brain with the reduced dimensionality of speech, then we will have made a beginning to solving fundamental challenges in understanding how the brain works—and, with that, of understanding individuality.”

 

http://discovermagazine.com/2011/apr/15-armys-bold-plan-turn-soldiers-into-telepaths/article_print

Effortless sailing with fluid flow cloak: Science Daily

Duke engineers have already shown that they can “cloak” light and sound, making objects invisible. Now, they have demonstrated the theoretical ability to significantly increase the efficiency of ships by tricking the surrounding water into staying still.”Ships expend a great deal of energy pushing the water around them out of the way as they move forward,” said Yaroslav Urzhumov, assistant research professor in electrical and computer engineering at Duke’s Pratt School of Engineering. “What our cloak accomplishes is that it reduces the mass of fluid that has to be displaced to a bare minimum.

“We accomplish this by tricking the water into being perfectly still everywhere outside the cloak,” Urzhumov said. “Since the water is still, there is no shear force, and you don’t have to drag anything extra with your object. So, comparing a regular vessel and a cloak of the same size, the latter needs to push a much smaller volume of water, and that’s where the hypothesized energy efficiency comes from.”

The results of Urzhumov’s analysis were published online in the journal Physical Review Letters. The research was supported by the U.S. Office of Naval Research and a Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) grant through the U.S. Army Research Office. Urzhumov works in the laboratory of David R. Smith, William Bevan Professor of electrical and computer engineering at Duke.

While the cloak postulated by Urzhumov differs from other cloaks designed to make objects seem invisible to light and sound, it follows the same basic principles — the use of a human-made material that can alter the normal forces of nature in new ways.

In Urzhumov’s fluid flow cloak, he envisions the hull of a vessel covered with porous materials — analogous to a rigid sponge-like material — which would be riddled with holes and passages. Strategically placed within this material would be tiny pumps, which would have the ability to push the flowing water along at various forces.

“The goal is make it so the water passing through the porous material leaves the cloak at the same speed as the water surrounding by the vessel,” Urzhumov said. “In this way, the water outside the hull would appear to be still relative to the vessel, thereby greatly reducing the amount of energy needed by the vessel to push vast quantities of water out of the way as it progresses.”

While the Duke invisibility cloak involved a human-made structure — or metamaterial — based on parallel rows of fiberglass slats etched with copper, Urzhumov envisions a different sort of metamaterial for his fluid flow cloak.

“In our case, I see this porous medium as a three-dimensional lattice, or array, of metallic plates,” he said. “You can imagine a cubic lattice of wire-supported blades, which would have to be oriented properly to create drag and lift forces that depend on the flow direction. In addition, some of the cells of this array would be equipped with fluid-accelerating micro-pumps.”

Urzhumov explained that when a regular vessel moves through fluid, it also pushes and displaces a volume of water that greatly exceeds the volume of the vessel itself. That is because in a viscous fluid like water, an object cannot just move a single layer of water without all others; the shear force effectively attaches an additional mass of water to the object.

“When you try to drag an object on a fishing line through water, it feels much heavier than the object itself, right?” he said. “That’s because you are dragging an additional volume of water with it.”

Based on this understanding of the flow cloaking phenomenon, Urzhumov believes that the energy expended by the micropumps could be significantly less than that needed to push an uncloaked vessel through the water, leading to the greatly improved efficiency.

 


Story Source:

The above story is reprinted (with editorial adaptations by ScienceDaily staff) from materials provided by Duke University. The original article was written by Richard Merritt.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811162823.htm

BBC News – Antimatter belt around Earth discovered by Pamela craft

A thin band of antimatter particles called antiprotons enveloping the Earth has been spotted for the first time.

The find, described in Astrophysical Journal Letters, confirms theoretical work that predicted the Earth’s magnetic field could trap antimatter.

The team says a small number of antiprotons lie between the Van Allen belts of trapped “normal” matter.

The researchers say there may be enough to implement a scheme using antimatter to fuel future spacecraft.

The antiprotons were spotted by the Pamela satellite (an acronym for Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics) – launched in 2006 to study the nature of high-energy particles from the Sun and from beyond our Solar System – so-called cosmic rays.

These cosmic ray particles can slam into molecules that make up the Earth’s atmosphere, creating showers of particles.

Many of the cosmic ray particles or these “daughter” particles they create are caught in the Van Allen belts, doughnut-shaped regions where the Earth’s magnetic field traps them.

Among Pamela’s goals was to specifically look for small numbers of antimatter particles among the far more abundant normal matter particles such as protons and the nuclei of helium atoms.

‘Abundant source’

The new analysis, described in an online preprint, shows that when Pamela passes through a region called the South Atlantic Anomaly, it sees thousands of times more antiprotons than are expected to come from normal particle decays, or from elsewhere in the cosmos.

False colour bubble chamber image of antiproton/proton annihilation Antiprotons “annihilate” if they come into contact with normal protons

The team says that this is evidence that bands of antiprotons, analogous to the Van Allen belts, hold the antiprotons in place – at least until they encounter the normal matter of the atmosphere, when they “annihilate” in a flash of light.

Although normal matter particles outweigh the antiprotons by thousands to one, the band is “the most abundant source of antiprotons near the Earth”, said Alessandro Bruno of the University of Bari, a co-author of the work.

“Trapped antiprotons can be lost in the interactions with atmospheric constituents, especially at low altitudes where the annihilation becomes the main loss mechanism,” he told BBC News.

“Above altitudes of several hundred kilometres, the loss rate is significantly lower, allowing a large supply of antiprotons to be produced.”

Dr Bruno said that, aside from confirming theoretical work that had long predicted the existence of these antimatter bands, the particles could also prove to be a novel fuel source for future spacecraft – an idea explored in a report for Nasa’s Institute for Advanced Concepts.

 

Spray-on Solar Goes Double-decker. By Tyler Hamilton

Quantum-dot cells designed with two layers open potential for higher efficiencies.

A research team at the University of Toronto has created the first two-layer solar cell made up of light-absorbing nanoparticles called quantum dots. Quantum dots, which can be tuned to absorb different parts of the solar spectrum by varying their size, have been seen as a promising route to low-cost solar cells because the particles can be sprayed onto surfaces much like paint. But cells based on this technology have been too inefficient to be practical. By discovering a way to combine two different types of quantum dots in a solar cell, the researchers could open the way to making such cells much more efficient.

Conventional solar cells are tuned to convert light of only one wavelength into electricity; the rest of the solar spectrum either passes through or is converted inefficiently. To harness a greater percentage of the energy in sunlight, manufacturers sometimes stack materials designed to capture different parts of the spectrum. A two-layer cell, called a tandem-junction cell, can theoretically achieve 42 percent efficiency, compared with a maximum theoretical efficiency of 31 percent for cells with a single layer.

In the Toronto researchers’ cell, one layer of quantum dots is tuned to capture visible light and the other to capture infrared light. The researchers also found a way to reduce electrical resistance between the layers, a problem that can limit the power output of a two-layer cell. They introduced a transition layer, made up of four films of different metal oxides, that keeps resistance “nice and low,” says Ted Sargent, a professor of electrical and computing engineering who led the research at the University of Toronto. The researchers chose transparent oxides for this layer, allowing light to pass through them to the bottom cell.

The result, described this week in the journal Nature Photonics, is a tandem-junction cell that captures a wide range of the spectrum and has an efficiency of 4.2 percent. Sargent says that the approach can be used to make triple-layer and even quadruple-layer, which could be even better. The team’s goal is to exceed 10 percent efficiency within five years and keep improving from there. Conventional solar panels are around 15 percent efficient, but quantum-dot cells of somewhat less efficiency could still have an edge in terms of overall costs for solar power if they prove dramatically less expensive to manufacture.

John Asbury, a professor of chemistry at Penn State University, says that by opening up the ability to make multilayer cells from quantum dots, the U of T team has boosted the theoretical efficiency of the technology from 30 percent to almost 50 percent. But getting anywhere near those kinds of efficiencies will require a lot of work to eliminate “trapped states”—places within the quantum-dot material where electrons can become stuck. “The problem with quantum dots is that electrons have a high probability of not making it to the electrodes where they can be collected, so that has limited their efficiency,” he says. “To really have an impact means developing strategies to control those trapped states.”

Copyright Technology Review 2011.

Larry Brilliant: Enabling sustainable humanity through getting serious about risk. By Andrew Maynard

[Transcript]

I’ve occasionally been accused of thinking big when it comes to Risk Science. So I was rather chuffed to hear former Executive Director of Google.org Larry Brilliant out-big me on every point as he delivered the 10th Peter M. Wege lecture here at the University of Michigan a couple of weeks ago.

Larry was talking about sustainable humanity, and the need to actively work toward a global society that overcomes problems (some old, some emerging) and continues to get better. But threaded through the lecture was the theme of risk, and the urgent need we face to become more educated and informed on the risks that humanity faces, and how together we can overcome them.

Many of the themes that emerged are near and dear to my heart, and are reflected in the Risk Science Center’s vision – enabling evidence-based and socially-responsive action on human health risks in a rapidly changing world. In fact, the lecture and Larry’s following answers to questions were so relevant to the Center that I felt like saying – next time someone asked what we were about – to simply say “what he said!”

Much of this was encapsulated in the following response to a question from Larry following the lecture:

We need a whole new generation of leaders, leaders who are cross-trained in governance, who understand risk literacy, who can communicate complex problems in simple ways, who truly believe in democracy, and who are willing to engage with their constituents in a way that ups the conversation. So people know what the hell they’re voting for. And what the consequences and the risks that they’re taking on. We’ve reached the stage where the public is being used as if it were the ultimate re-insurer. What happens when a nuclear power plant us built on an earthquake fault and things go bad? It’s paid for by the tax payers in ways that we haven’t contemplated. Who has done the risk cost benefit analysis of continuing to use fossil fuels? So these are not things that we normally train students with. It’s a shame but I think that the three “r’s” of reading, writing and arithmetic must have a fourth “r” added: risk; as we understand the ever-more risky world that we have inherited and the complex interrelated-ness of the factors that lead to it.

Of course, enabling sustainable humanity is about far more than risk. But, as Larry so eloquently indicated, we neglect developing a deep and sophisticated understanding of risk and how we should be responding to it at our peril.

Read more: http://2020science.org/2011/04/01/larry-brilliant-enabling-sustainable-humanity-through-getting-serious-about-risk/#ixzz1NsDoKTSE

Accelerating technologies will create a global state by 2050. By Hugo de Garis

This essay argues that the exponential rate of technical progress will create within 40 years an Internet that is a trillion times faster than today’s, a global media, a global education system, a global language, and a globally homogenized culture, thus establishing the prerequisites for the creation of a global democratic state, “Globa,” and ridding the world of war, the arms trade, ignorance, and poverty. Whether Globa can cope with the rise of massively intelligent machines occurring at about the same time is far less certain.

Most readers will have heard of the phenomenon called “Moore’s Law” (i.e., the trend that the number of transistors that can be crammed onto a chip keeps doubling every 18 months). Less well known is the phenomenon I label “BRAD” (Bit Rate Annual Doubling), i.e., the speed of the Internet keeps doubling every 12 months. [Both of these are examples of Ray Kurzweil's law of accelerating returns. - Ed.]The physicists say that there is effectively no theoretical limit to how tiny a substrate can be that is used to convey information, so we can expect the Internet speed to keep doubling for many decades. This means that in 30 years, the Internet will be a billion (230) times faster than it is today (2011). In 40 years, it will be a trillion (240) times faster.

What could one do with such fantastic speeds? One obvious answer is that 3D images could be transmitted that would appear to our eyes as real and as vivid as the objects we see by the light of the sun. It would also mean that everyone on the planet could receive the media of the whole world, i.e., “everyone gets everything.” The 3D life-size images transmitted would be so real that they would generate the same emotional impact on the viewer as a normal face-to-face contact in the same room. This will have a huge impact on people’s minds and attitudes.

The “Global Language Snowball Effect”

Imagine you are a very young primary school child in the 2020s and you are watching your “vid” (i.e., your 3D video player) in your living room. You notice that about 60% of the programs and the content of the world media you are receiving on your vid is in the world’s 1st or 2nd most spoken language, i.e., English. You therefore decide to master this language so that you can understand what most of the world is saying.

Now imagine you are the minister of telecommunications in your little country and you have to decide which languages you will use for the content you will send up to the global Internet satellite system. You note that already 60% of the world Internet content is in English, so you choose to send up your country’s content in your country’s language, and in English, as well as perhaps several other languages.

A few years later, the percentage has moved up to 70%. Eventually, all countries will be sending up their content in at least two languages — their own, and English. A snowball/saturation effect has arisen (i.e., the greater is the proportion of people on the earth who watch a given language, the greater is the number of countries that transmit in that language, and the greater the percentage of content on the global media that is in a given language, the higher the proportion of people who decide to learn and listen to that language), causing English to become the global language.

English today is far and away the planet’s most spoken 1st or 2nd language. It will certainly not be Chinese, since the world will utterly reject China’s incredibly clumsy and stupid writing system. China is the only country in the world (as far as I know) that does not use an alphabet in its writing. Instead of having to learn an alphabet of some two dozen symbols, the Chinese have to learn thousands of symbols to write their language.

Global Politics

The rise of a global language will have a huge impact on the world. Ideas will be able to flow far more readily across the planet. Billions of people will be influenced by the “best” ideas that the planet has to offer. People’s minds will be influenced powerfully, so that today’s nationalist mentalities will be gradually transformed into tomorrow’s globist mentalities. People will be able to compare their own local customs with those of other cultures and reject their own if they feel that other countries customs are superior to their own. People will become more “multi” (i.e., multi-cultured) than “mono” (i.e., mono-cultured).

Multis will increasingly look down on monos as inferior beings (rather like city-slickers towards country-bumpkins), seeing the monos as limited as individuals by the limitations of the single culture that programs them. Today’s governments will no longer be able to brainwash their citizens into the ideologies of their nationalist leaders. Global education systems (“globiversities”) will be established, to educate the poor people of the world. Internet satellites will be able to beam down education programs at all levels, from kindergarten to PhD level research seminars on all topics.

Global Satellite Learning (“GSL”) will rid the world of its last dictatorships (a process called “dedictation”), as billions of poor people catch on to the idea that they can pull themselves out of poverty by buying a small cheap vid (legally or on the black market) and educating themselves using the programs beamed down by the Internet satellites, the “edsats” (education satellites). As billions do this and become “middle class,” they will demand a say in their political systems, leading within 40 years (at the rate the world is democratizing — two countries per year) to a totally democratic world.

Since democratic countries do not go to war against each other (their voting populations do not allow it), the world will be far more peaceful. The 20th century’s diabolical trade in arms can be banished, and so can war. With over a trillion dollars a year freed up from arms spending in the world, this money can be rechanneled into humanitarian pursuits.

Global Cultural Homogenization

With a global language and all countries being democracies, the stage is set for global cultural homogenization. A billion-fold faster Internet will not be the only factor leading to global cultural homogenization. There are many other factors pushing humanity into a “globist mentality”, e.g., high-speed train networks across countries and continents, space planes that can carry a thousand people from New York to Beijing in a few hours, and greater wealth, which will mean far greater numbers of people becoming international tourists, visiting the beauty spots they can see on their vids in vivid 3D.

Also, a larger global economy will stimulate global trade, the creation of ever more economic and political blocs such as the EU (European Union), SAU (South American Union), AU (African Union), etc. will mean ever more international business people will be traveling to do business and to inspect progress in their various projects, etc. All these influences and more will make the creation of a global cultural homogenization more probable.

When the whole planet can watch the media of the whole world, in a global language, the minds of the world’s citizens will be made “globist,” not “nationalist.” Political leaders of countries whose policies are considered by the majority of the world’s citizens to be harmful or stupid will feel enormous moral pressure against them.

World opinion will be overpowering. If the citizens of a given country learn that 95% of other countries are opposed to their country’s policies, that will force them to think twice about the wisdom of their own leaders’ judgments. That in turn will make their leaders think twice too. All the world’s leaders will become sensitive to global opinion.

As the best ideas and customs spread across the planet, and billions of people adopt the same set of ideas (i.e., cultural homogenization), the stage is set for the creation of a global state. This will obviously be an incremental process.

Building Globa, the Global State

There are many routes to the creation of a global state, e.g., the expansion of the EU (European Union) route, the expansion of powers of the U.N. (United Nations) route, the merging of economic/political blocs route, etc. As the size of the economic/political blocs keeps increasing, smaller blocs need to become larger to stay competitive.

For example, in the case of the U.S., if it does not do what the smaller European nations have been doing for half a century, i.e., ceding sovereignty and merging into a much larger whole, then the U.S. will “not be a player” in the 21st century, because it will not be a member of the “billion club,” whose members include China, India, the EU, etc. The US will need to merge with the 30+ countries of the Americas and/or form an “Atlantic Union” with the EU to stay economically competitive and powerful. As blocs merge with other blocs, eventually there will be a single bloc the size of the planet.

There will be many forces that will be opposed to the creation of a global state, e.g., nationalism, national sovereignty, cultural differences, the clash of ideologies, religious differences, charity begins at home attitudes, cultural inertia, cultural alienation, etc. To overcome these formidable barriers that kept nations and mentalities apart in the 20th century, the “Globists,” i.e., those people in favor of “Globism,” the creation of “Globa,” the global state, will need to organize and spread their Globist ideology.

Since the creation of a global democratic state has such huge advantages compared to today’s sovereign nation state system, where each state is always spending large amounts of money preparing for the next war, the Globists will be able to muster powerful arguments in their favor. The Globists will need to organize at a local level, at a regional level, a national level, at a continental level, and eventually at a global level. They will need their symbols, their logos, their flag, their ideology, their anthem, their political programs, etc., and will then need to proselytize the world.

Globists could be active in researching and setting up the globiversities, the GSL (Global Satellite Learning), designing cheap smuggle-able vids for the world’s poor, pouring scorn on the nationalists (e.g., jeering at national anthems, etc.), making their presence felt all around the globe, pushing towards a grand vision: creation of  a global state, riddance of war, banning the arms trade, scrapping nuclear weapons, education of the world’s population, and removal of world poverty.

These are magnificent goals and are readily achievable with the technologies that are coming in the next few decades. These technologies will soon make what was earlier seen as “globaloney” into Globa.

Globa’s Agenda

Once a global state (“Globa”) has been established, it will have its work cut out for it. The first thing it will have to do is set up a slew of new institutions, most of which will be analogous to national institutions as we know them today, e.g., create a global constitution, a global president, a global parliament, global political parties, global laws, a global civil service, global police, a global court, a global military, globiversities, global taxation, global wealth distribution, global resource management, global trade unions, global incomes policy, a global currency unit (the “Globo”), global health insurance, etc.

Once the establishment of these institutions is well en route, Globa would then need to tackle the planet’s major problems, e.g. it would need to create a globist ethics and globist propaganda, to undertake global nuclear disarmament, ban the global arms trade, meet the global environmental challenges, eliminate global poverty, establish a global taxation policy, as well as a global incomes and raw materials policy, global education, global population migration, foster greater global happiness rather than economic wealth, etc.

Globa and the Artilect

The above has argued that a global state “Globa” could be established by about the middle of the 21st century. This would be a wonderful thing if it can be achieved. However there is a gathering storm on the horizon, which will be playing itself out over the same time frame, namely the rise of the artilect (artificial intellect, i.e., a godlike massively intelligent machine) with intellectual capacities trillions of trillions of times above the human level.

The rise of the artilect will probably divide humanity bitterly into two major human groups: the “Cosmists” (who want to be “god (i.e., artilect) builders,” a form of science-based quasi-religion) and the “Terrans” (who are bitterly opposed to building artilects, through fear that the artilects may one day decide humans are such inferior pests and wipe them out). There is a third group, the “Cyborgists” (who want to add artilectual components to their own brains and become artilect gods themselves).

Since the computational capacity of nanoteched matter is so great (e.g., a grain of sugar with each atom switching in femtoseconds could outperform a human brain by a factor of trillions), the Terrans will lump the Cyborgists into the same ideological camp as the Cosmists (since a cyborg would be indistinguishable from an artilect in artilectual capacities). Since the Terrans will have a limited time window of opportunity within which to oppose the Cosmists/Cyborgists, before the cyborgs and artilects come into being and are then smarter than the Terrans, the Terrans will not be able to wait for too long.

The Terrans will have to “first strike” the Cosmists/Cyborgists/cyborgs/artilects before it is too late. The Terrans will be using 21st century weapons that will enable the scale of mass killing to rise from the tens of millions of people of the major wars of the 20th century, to the billions of people of a major 21st century war. The Cosmists/Cyborgists will anticipate this first strike by the Terrans and be prepared for it, also using 21st century weapons.

Thus Globa will have to face its greatest challenge: can it cope with the rise of Cosmism and Cyborgism? Will Globa be able to cope with the passions generated by two murderously opposed, very powerful ideologies (Cosmism and Terranism)? Opinion polls already show that the “species dominance issue” (i.e., whether humanity should build godlike artilects this century or not) divides humanity about evenly. Many individuals are ambivalent about the magnificence of building artilect gods, and horrified at the prospect of a “gigadeath” “artilect war.”

It is not at all obvious that a unified global state would be strong enough to withstand the divisive passions of the “species dominance debate” that will heat up in the coming decades and may explode into a “global civil war” killing billions of people, with 21st century weapons, in the greatest war humanity has ever known, because the stakes have never been so high: the survival of the human species. 20th century wars were largely “nationalist wars.” A major 21st century war would be a “species dominance war.”

The above essay is a summary of the ideas in the author’s second book, Multis and Monos : What the Multicultured Can Teach  the Monocultured: Towards the Creation of a Global State. The ideas above concerning the rise of the artilect are taken largely from the author’s first book, The Artilect War: Cosmists vs. Terrans: A Bitter Controversy Concerning Whether Humanity Should Build Godlike Massively Intelligent Machines. Both books are available at amazon.com